#我在Gate广场过新年

Historical Spring Festival Market Trends for Bitcoin—Will the "Spring Festival Must Rise" Pattern Continue This Year?
"Learn from history to understand prosperity and decline." The Year of the Horse Spring Festival is approaching. How will Bitcoin perform during the holiday? Let's review Bitcoin's performance over the past 12 Spring Festivals:
‌2015‌: Spring Festival was on February 18. Price rebounded from about $170 to $230, an increase of approximately 14.6%.

‌2016‌: Spring Festival was on February 7. Price recovered from $430, rising about 10.3% before and after the holiday.

‌2017‌: Spring Festival was on January 28. Price started at $923, and after the holiday, a bull market began, breaking through $19,000 for the first time that year, with an increase of about 30.1%.

‌2018‌: Spring Festival was on February 16. Price rose from $6,700 to $7,550, an increase of about 15%.

‌2019‌: Spring Festival was on February 5. Price increased from $3,462 to $3,685, up about 14.0%.

‌2020‌: Spring Festival was on January 25. Price rose from $8,682 to $9,449, an increase of about 8.8%.

‌2021‌: Spring Festival was on February 12. Price slightly declined from $101,279 to $97,710, a drop of approximately -0.35%.

‌2022‌: Spring Festival was on February 1. Price increased by about 13.9%.

‌2023‌: Spring Festival was on January 22. Price rose from $21,071 to $23,960, an increase of about 13.7%.

‌2024‌: Spring Festival was on February 9. Price increased from $65,000 to over $70,000, an approximate rise of 8%.

2025: Spring Festival was on January 28. Bitcoin was fluctuating around $100,000, with a slight decline.
By reviewing these patterns, it’s clear that in the past 12 years, about 9-10 years have shown positive returns, with an average increase of over 10%, especially during early bull markets (such as 2016, 2017, 2023). Only in 2021 and 2025 did prices decline or stay flat, suggesting that the "Spring Festival Red Envelope" market pattern for Bitcoin might really exist. The possible reasons are as follows:
1. "Chinese Aunties" flood the crypto market with idle funds during the Spring Festival
Due to the long holiday in China, stock markets are usually closed for 7-10 days. The saying "Money never sleeps" applies, and some investors who don’t want to stay on standby may move their funds out of stocks early and into cryptocurrencies. This could be a direct cause of the Spring Festival rally. Additionally, the 7-8 day holiday provides ample rest time for office workers to trade cryptocurrencies, especially in the last few days when trading activity is particularly high.
2. Relatively calm policy environment during the holiday
During the long holiday, regulatory policies from mainland China are in a vacuum, remaining relatively quiet, which is conducive to crypto market speculation.

Over the past 12 years, only last year saw a significant decline in Bitcoin prices during the Spring Festival. Will the "Spring Festival Must Rise" pattern be restored this year? I believe it’s highly probable. Besides the two reasons above, Bitcoin experienced a substantial drop last week, and its correction has been quite sufficient, creating a demand for a rebound.
Furthermore, three aspects deserve special attention:
1. How will the upcoming US January CPI and non-farm payroll data turn out? If positive, it will undoubtedly accelerate Bitcoin’s "Spring Festival rally."
2. What will be the future trend of gold and silver? Recently, the gold and silver bull markets have not only attracted attention but also drawn a large influx of funds. Many crypto enthusiasts have started shifting their focus to gold and silver. If gold and silver remain volatile or even decline during the Spring Festival holiday, it will undoubtedly serve as a strong catalyst for Bitcoin’s rebound.
3. Can the Chinese meme "我踏马来了" (I'm coming, damn it) take advantage of the rebound during the Spring Festival?
Family members, what do you think about Bitcoin’s market during the Spring Festival? Will the "Spring Festival Must Rise" pattern continue? Feel free to leave your comments.