‍#当前行情抄底还是观望？

The current market turmoil (February 6, 2026) feels like a "perfect storm" where multiple asset classes are being dragged down by a single, powerful wave of deleveraging. While it’s tempting to look for a single villain, the reality is a combination of shifting political leadership, cooling AI fever, and a sudden "reality check" in the labor market.

1. Why Everything is Falling Together

Traditionally, gold and stocks move in opposite directions (negative correlation). However, we are currently seeing a liquidity-driven sell-off. When high-risk assets (Tech/Crypto) crash hard, traders facing margin calls are forced to sell their "winners"—which, until recently, were Gold and Silver—to cover their losses.
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has removed the "political risk premium" from precious metals. Investors previously bought gold fearing a "kook" would debase the dollar; Warsh is seen as a stable, "safe" choice, causing a massive unwind of that defensive trade.

Big Tech has signaled massive increases in AI spending Investors are shifting from "AI excitement" to "AI skepticism," questioning when these trillion-dollar investments will actually show a return.

Recent reports showing the lowest U.S. job openings since 2020 and a surge in jobless claims have sparked fears that the "soft landing" might be turning into a "bumpy landing."
2. When is the Bottom? (Bottom-Fishing Signals)

"Bottom-fishing" right now is like trying to catch a falling knife that is also on fire. However, history suggests looking for these three specific signals before stepping back in:

The "Volatility Flush": We need to see the VIX (Volatility Index) spike and then "plateau." The current 9% intraday drop in silver and Bitcoin’s dip below $60k are classic "capitulation" signs, but we haven't seen the volume stabilize yet.

Technical Support Zones:

Bitcoin: Watch the $58,000–$60,000 range. This was a major psychological floor in 2024.

GOLD:Analysts are eyeing the $4,520–$4,600 zone as the next structural support.

The bottom often forms when the Fed stops talking about "sticky inflation" and starts talking about "supporting the labor market."
3. To Short or Not to Short?

In such a volatile market, "shorting" (betting on a price drop) is quite profitable but extremely dangerous due to the risks of shorting squeeze.

Looking at the data, the recent $1 billion liquidation in Bitcoin shows that "easy money" for shorting has already been made. Now, shorting after a 10-15% drop puts you at risk of a severe "dead cat bounce."

The Best Strategy for "Dip Hunting":

Instead of "completely risk-averse" bets, consider Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) on high-quality assets (like stocks or Bitcoin) in 5% increments when they reach the support levels mentioned above. This eliminates the need for perfectly "timing" the bottom, which even the best hedge funds rarely predict correctly.
Given the market’s "liquidation cascade" this morning, the technical landscape has shifted rapidly. We are moving from a trend-following market to a "mean-reversion" hunt.

Here is a breakdown of the critical support levels for Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold (XAU) based on current intraday volatility and structural history.
1. Bitcoin (BTC): The Battle for $60k

Bitcoin has undergone a massive "leverage flush." The break below $65,000 triggered a domino effect of liquidations, bringing us into a zone that hasn't been tested in months.

$60,500 – $61,500 1-Month & 13-Week Low

This is the immediate psychological "line in the sand." If it fails to hold on a daily close, the narrative shifts from "correction" to "bearish trend.

"$56,000 – $58,500 The "Golden Pocket" Support

This area aligns with the 2024 breakout base and the 200-week Moving Average. Many institutional "buy walls" are parked here.

$52,000 Max Pain Zone

On-chain data (Delta Price) suggests this is the absolute floor. A drop here would represent a 20%+ correction, often a signal for a long-term bottom.
RSI Signal: The 14-day RSI has dipped near 20, indicating an extreme "oversold" condition. While this doesn't guarantee an immediate bounce, it suggests the downward momentum is nearing exhaustion.

2. Gold (XAU): The "Warsh" Reset

Gold's plunge from its $5,600 peak is historic. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair has effectively "repriced" the dollar, forcing gold to find a new equilibrium.

$4,660 – $4,700 Immediate Intraday Support

Where the market is currently "bouncing." If we hold $4,700 today, it forms a "bullish pin bar" on the daily chart—a classic reversal signal.

$4,400 – $4,465 Monday's Flash Crash Low

This is the "hard floor" established earlier this week. It represents a 25% retracement from the all-time high.

$3,900 – $4,200 Structural Demand Zone

This is the "Conservative Entry" for long-term investors. Banks like Goldman Sachs have identified this as the fair value for 2026.
The "crowded long" position in gold has been cleaned out (positioning fell from 8/10 to 4/10 this week). This "clearing of weak hands" is a necessary prerequisite for the next leg up to $6,000.

The "V" Bottom? Unlikely. Markets usually need a period of "sideways" consolidation to build a base after a crash this sharp.

Best Time to Bottom-Fish: Watch the Friday Weekly Close. If BTC stays above $60,000 and Gold stays above $4,650, it suggests the worst of the panic is over.
To determine if we have reached peak retail capitulation, we have to look at the "Emotional Temperature" of the market. Right now, it’s not just cold—it’s freezing.

1. Crypto Fear & Greed Index: "Extreme Fear" (Score: 11)

The index has cratered to 11/100. For context, this is the lowest level since November 2025.

Typically, a score below 15 indicates that retail traders have stopped "buying the dip" and have started "panic selling."

Historically, when this index stays in the 10–15 range for more than 72 hours, it often marks a local bottom. We are currently in day 2 of this deep-freeze.
2. Stock Market Fear & Greed (Score: 40)

Interestingly, the U.S. stock market is only in "Fear" (40/100), not "Extreme Fear" yet.

This suggests that while crypto is in total meltdown, equity investors are still somewhat hopeful for a rebound.

If the stock market index drops into the 20s, it could drag Bitcoin and Gold even lower as institutional funds sell everything to raise cash.

3. Social Media Sentiment: "The Ghost Town Effect"

has shifted from "Buy the dip!" to "Is crypto dead?" and "Gold is a scam."

Mention of "Bitcoin" has dropped in volume, but "Liquidation" and "Recession" are trending.
From a contrasting perspective, the most positive signal is often the silencing or excessive pessimism of social media. We are seeing the "original profit-taking" movement, with over $1 billion in liquidations, driving the last remnants of highly leveraged retail investors out of the market.
Summary of Capitulation

Crypto F&G Index11 (Extreme Fear)

Approaching a generational buying opportunity.

Stock F&G Index40 (Fear)

More room to fall; potential "contagion" risk.

Social Sentiment Bearish/Apathy

Retail has likely "thrown in the towel.

"VIX (Volatility) Spiking (+13%)

Fear is accelerating; wait for the spike to level off.
My View on Today's "Bottom Hunting":

The data shows that cryptocurrencies are much closer to the bottom than stocks. Bitcoin being at $60,000 indicates it's "oversold" on the RSI (currently around 20-30), but broader market fear (CNN Index at 40) suggests another "final dip" for stocks may be coming.

‍$BTC $XAU