Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Slow Their Cashing Pace, Signaling Cautious Rally

Bitcoin has returned to a challenging price zone that has historically blocked sustained gains, but this time there’s a glimmer of hope: long-term holders are being far more measured with their cashing activity. According to on-chain analysis from Glassnode, these veteran investors—defined as wallets holding coins for over five months—have dramatically reduced their profit-taking rate, which could ease selling pressure and allow the current rally to breathe.

The shift is striking. During 2025 when Bitcoin soared above $100,000, long-term holders were aggressively cashing out approximately 100,000 BTC ($9.62 billion) each week. Today, with BTC trading near $84,220, their weekly cashing has moderated to just 12,800 BTC—a reduction of roughly 87%. This deceleration in profit realization comes at a pivotal moment for the market.

Long-Term Holders Show Restraint in Cashing Behavior

The data reveals an important shift in investor psychology. “This moderation suggests profit-taking remains active, but far less aggressive than during prior distribution phases,” Glassnode noted in recent analysis. The distinction matters significantly: instead of a panic-driven exodus, we’re seeing selective cashing by patient capital.

Bitcoin’s current position illustrates why this restraint is crucial. The recent 10% two-week rally has pushed prices right back into the historic sell zone of $93,000–$110,000—a range where long-term holders have booked substantial profits throughout the past year. In theory, this should trigger aggressive cashing activity. Instead, the measured approach suggests these veteran holders are testing the market’s resilience rather than dumping holdings indiscriminately.

Multiple price recovery attempts since November have fizzled near the lower edge of that resistance zone, consistently encountering renewed selling pressure. “Each attempt higher has encountered renewed sell-side pressure, preventing price from sustaining a structural recovery,” Glassnode observed. The current test, however, feels different precisely because of the slower cashing pace.

Supply Zone Dynamics and the Path Forward

For Bitcoin to establish a genuine recovery trajectory, sustained absorption of long-term holder distribution remains essential. The market faces a delicate balance: if cashing activity accelerates significantly, downside pressure could intensify. Conversely, if this measured profit-taking persists, the supply constraint could permit prices to work higher toward the $100,000 psychological level.

Broader geopolitical tensions add another variable to watch. Potential escalation between the U.S. and Iran could trigger widespread risk aversion, pushing Bitcoin and correlated assets lower regardless of long-term holder behavior. This underscores why monitoring investor cashing patterns remains vital—they’re often leading indicators of sentiment shifts.

The Broader Crypto Ecosystem: Pudgy Penguins and Beyond

Beyond Bitcoin’s price action, the ecosystem continues evolving. Pudgy Penguins has emerged as one of the strongest NFT-native brands this cycle, transforming from speculative “digital luxury goods” into a multi-vertical consumer IP platform. The project’s strategy hinges on acquiring mainstream users first—through toys, retail partnerships, and viral media—before onboarding them into Web3 via games, NFTs, and the PENGU token.

The results are notable: the phygital product line has generated over $13M in retail sales with more than 1M units distributed, while Pudgy Party games surpassed 500,000 downloads in just two weeks. The PENGU token has been widely distributed to over 6 million wallets. While the market currently prices Pudgy at a premium relative to traditional IP peers, execution across retail expansion, gaming adoption, and deeper token utility will ultimately determine sustainability.

XRP Faces Support Pressure Amid Broad Risk-Off

Related asset XRP has experienced its own volatility, dropping approximately 5% from $1.91 to near $1.80 as Bitcoin’s pullback sparked broader risk-off selling across high-beta tokens. The slide accelerated once XRP broke below crucial support around $1.87 on elevated volume, erasing the prior week’s gains before demand reemerged near the $1.78–$1.80 zone.

Traders now view $1.80 as a critical support level, with a sustained recovery above $1.87–$1.90 needed to signal a corrective pullback rather than the beginning of a deeper decline. The relationship between Bitcoin’s cashing patterns and altcoin performance remains tightly coupled, making overall market sentiment a primary driver for the broader cryptocurrency space.

The interplay between long-term holder cashing behavior, technical resistance, and macroeconomic headwinds will ultimately determine whether Bitcoin’s current recovery proves durable or merely another false attempt to break through established resistance.