Four Tech Billionaires' 2026 Investment Thesis: Copper Surge, Sovereign Crypto, and the Political Realignment

In a sweeping analysis from the latest All-In Podcast episode, four prominent venture capitalists and tech entrepreneurs—Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks—have laid out their most ambitious predictions for 2026. Against the backdrop of political upheaval (with progressive figures like those aligned with Bernie Sanders gaining traction within the Democratic Party) and economic transformation, their investment theses reveal a collective shift toward commodities, digital asset innovation, and a fundamental realignment of political power in America.

The Great Capital Exodus: California’s Wealth Tax as Economic Catalyst

The conversation opens with a pressing reality: California’s proposed wealth tax has triggered a mass migration of tech wealth. With over $500 billion in combined net worth already departed or departing, the group predicts this fiscal crisis will dominate 2026 discourse. Chamath Palihapitiya notes that if the tax passes, roughly half of California’s projected taxable wealth will vanish—a catastrophic blow to state budgets already burdened by unfunded pension liabilities.

David Sacks, who relocated to Texas, explains the underlying terror: a 5% annual tax on illiquid stock holdings could bankrupt companies. Worse, super-voting-rights clauses could effectively transform that 5% levy into a 25-50% tax. The proposal currently sits at a 45% probability of passing, though it has surged to 80% following involvement from progressive politicians. Even if defeated in 2026, the group expects a return in 2028, creating a perpetual state of capital uncertainty.

Investment Opportunities in 2026: The Case for Copper and Commodity Supercycle

Beyond the capital flight narrative, the group’s bullish thesis centers on three major asset classes.

Copper emerges as the consensus commodity play. Chamath argues that copper demand will face a 70% global supply deficit by 2040, driven by electrification, data centers, and defense systems. As the world’s most versatile, conductive, and ductile material, copper represents the ultimate supply-constrained asset—more valuable than gold in this new geopolitical era.

Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform, garners support from Friedberg as both a winner and best-performing asset. Having evolved from a niche market into a mainstream platform offering real-time insights into geopolitical and financial events, Friedberg predicts partnerships with major exchanges—Robinhood, Coinbase, Nasdaq—will accelerate its explosive growth in 2026.

The IPO Renaissance represents Sacks’ boldest call: a massive reversal of the decade-long trend of companies staying private. Part of the broader “Trump Boom” narrative, Sacks expects trillions in new market capitalization as giants like SpaceX, Anthropic, and Stripe file for public offerings. For Jason Calacanis, the speculative upside extends to platforms like Robinhood, PrizePicks, and Coinbase—venues where consumers will channel newly freed capital into high-risk bets.

From Bitcoin to Sovereign Crypto: The Digital Asset Paradigm Shift

Perhaps most provocatively, Chamath predicts that central banks will abandon gold and Bitcoin in favor of a new, controlled crypto paradigm. This sovereign digital asset will be tradable, quantum-resistant, and entirely free from foreign surveillance—addressing the perceived limitations of decentralized cryptocurrencies for nation-states.

Current crypto valuations reflect market enthusiasm: Bitcoin trades at $89.39K with a $1.79 trillion market cap (56.43% dominance), while Ethereum sits at $3.00K. Yet the group’s deeper thesis suggests traditional assets like gold will face secular headwinds as reserve currencies migrate to cryptographically secure, sovereignty-preserving alternatives.

The Contrarian Predictions Reshaping Markets and Politics

SpaceX will merge with Tesla rather than pursue an IPO, Chamath forecasts, as Elon Musk consolidates control over his two most valuable holdings.

AI will increase, not decrease, demand for knowledge workers—a counterintuitive application of the Jevons Paradox. Lower coding costs will spawn massive new software demand; cheaper radiological scans will drive more imaging, requiring more radiologists to verify AI diagnostics.

The US-China standoff will largely resolve under Trump’s second term, with both superpowers transitioning from zero-sum competition to transactional coexistence.

Iran’s regime will fall, destabilizing the Middle East further. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Friedberg argues Iran’s departure will trigger new power struggles among Gulf states, not regional peace.

Worst Performing Assets: Oil, California Real Estate, and Dollar Decline

The consensus bearish case targets three asset classes.

Oil prices will decline toward $45 per barrel, Chamath predicts, as electrification and energy storage render hydrocarbons economically obsolete. This irreversible trend transcends climate ideology—it reflects fundamental shifts in energy consumption.

California luxury real estate faces existential pressure as wealth flees the state. Sacks openly hopes a failed wealth tax vote produces a “dead cat bounce” allowing him to liquidate properties before collapse deepens.

Traditional media stocks and the US dollar round out the losers. Netflix’s harsh content economics (cost-plus-10%) alienate top creators; independent creators and citizen journalism erode traditional media’s moat. Meanwhile, ballooning national debt—expected to grow by an additional $2 trillion in 2026, exacerbated by potential 50% defense spending increases—will inevitably challenge the dollar’s reserve currency status.

Political Winners: The Trump Boom and Progressive Ascendancy

The group’s political forecast reveals a paradoxical landscape. The “Trump Boom” emerges as the consensus winner, buoyed by falling inflation (2.7%), core CPI at 2.6%, Q3 GDP at 4.3%, and the trade deficit at its lowest since 2009. Sacks predicts 75-100 basis points of rate cuts by June, while April tax refunds—courtesy of expanded standard deductions and tip/overtime exemptions—will inject massive consumer spending power.

Yet Friedberg identifies an unexpected winner: Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), who he argues are capturing the Democratic Party base just as MAGA captured Republicans. This progressive surge reflects frustration with Democratic centrism—the group’s consensus political loser.

The GDP forecast underscores the economic backdrop: predictions range from 4.6% to 6.2%, rivaling China’s coordinated growth rates but under democratic capitalism. Such growth would validate the broader bullish narrative.

The End of Democratic Centrism and the Tech Industry’s Reckoning

Chamath identifies the Monroe Doctrine as the symbolic loser—a geopolitical framework destined for historical revision. Trump’s emerging paradigm prioritizes hemispheric dominance, transactional relationships, and proactive intervention in drug wars and immigration—a sharp departure from Cold War-era multipolarity.

Friedberg’s stark assessment: the tech industry itself faces 2026 as an existential referendum. Populism on both left and right now targets tech wealth and AI advancement. The left views tech’s Republican alignment as betrayal of progressive values; the right remembers censorship and deplatformization during the Biden era. Republican senators Friedberg recently consulted express profound distrust of tech leadership.

Sacks counters that MAGA remains tech’s natural ally—both champion property rights and innovation. However, tech requires “truth and reconciliation” sessions with conservatives, moving beyond the Biden administration’s pressure and one-sided donations to left-wing causes.

Synthesis: The 2026 Outlook

The collective forecast reveals a macro thesis: capital flight from high-tax jurisdictions, commodity scarcity-driven valuations, the emergence of decentralized sovereign crypto, explosive expansion of IPO markets, and AI-driven productivity gains sustaining knowledge-worker demand even amid automation fears.

Politically, 2026 marks the acceleration of existing trends—MAGA’s institutional consolidation, progressive DSA ascendancy over Democratic centrism, and a fundamental recalibration of US foreign policy toward transactional rather than ideological alliances. The tech industry, despite its wealth and innovation leadership, faces unprecedented political vulnerability requiring swift engagement with skeptical constituencies across the political spectrum.

In sum, the group’s consensus is unmistakable: double down on commodities, diversify away from the dollar, embrace new digital asset paradigms, and prepare for a political landscape where centrism—both Democratic and institutional tech consensus—surrenders ground to populist forces reshaping American capital allocation for the next decade.