‍#加密市场观察 Market Analysis Today

The drop in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to 20 (Extreme Fear) on January 26, 2026, marks a significant shift in market psychology. This level typically indicates that investors are deeply concerned, often leading to irrational selling or "panic" behavior.

Historically, while a score of 20 reflects a grim mood, it is often viewed by contrarian investors as a potential "buy the dip" signal, following the famous Warren Buffett adage: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

Current Market Context (January 2026)

The descent into extreme fear follows a turbulent start to the year. Several factors are currently weighing on sentiment:

Geopolitical Friction: Recent tensions between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland have spooked global markets, causing a "risk-off" environment where capital flows out of volatile assets like crypto and into safe havens like gold.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Policy uncertainty under the Trump administration and a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts have kept institutional buyers on the sidelines.

Price Performance: Bitcoin recently slipped back toward the $88,000–$90,000 range after failing to hold ground near the $100,000 milestone earlier this month. Ethereum has also struggled, dropping below the psychological $3,000 level.

Institutional Outflows: Major spot ETFs (including BlackRock and Fidelity) have seen significant outflows recently, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, which has amplified the bearish narrative.

What "Extreme Fear" Usually Means

0–24 Extreme Fear Panic selling, high liquidations, and "undervalued" assets.

25–46 Fear General caution; investors are waiting for a clear trend.

47–54 Neutral Equilibrium; market is searching for a catalyst.

55–75 Greed FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) begins; heavy retail buying.

76–100 Extreme Greed Market is likely overbought and due for a correction.

The Silver Lining

Despite the current "chilling" sentiment, some analysts point to a "Golden Cross" in the 30-day moving average of the sentiment index as a sign that a recovery could be brewing beneath the surface. For long-term holders, these periods of extreme fear have historically been the foundation for the next leg up, once the "weak hands" have been shaken out.

With the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reaching 20, liquidation data reveals exactly where the "Extreme Fear" is coming from. The market is currently experiencing a massive "leverage clearing"; investors betting on a quick recovery are being forced out of their positions.

Here's a breakdown of the liquidations and the key price levels that "whales" and market makers are currently focusing on:

24-Hour Liquidation Overview

In the last 24 hours (ending January 26, 2026), the market saw a sharp increase in forced closures:

Total Liquidations: Approximately $1.1 billion across the entire crypto market.

Long Positions vs. Short Positions: 92% of these were long positions (investors betting on price increases), indicating a significant "long position squeeze."

Affected Investors: Over 183,000 individual trading accounts were wiped out.

The Largest One-Time Transaction: A BTC-USDT swap worth $13.52 million shows that even high-net-worth "whales" are caught up in volatility.

Whale Targets: The Liquidation Heatmap

Market makers often push prices toward areas with high "liquidity clusters"—where many stop-losses and liquidation prices are sitting—to fuel further momentum.

1. Bitcoin (BTC) Battlegrounds

The "Magnet" Zone ($87,000 – $88,000): This is the immediate downside target. There is a dense cluster of long liquidations near $87,000. If Bitcoin breaks below this, we could see a rapid "cascade" down to $85,000.

The Short Squeeze Zone ($91,000 – $92,500): On the upside, whales are eyeing a massive wall of short liquidations (traders betting on a crash). If BTC can reclaim $88,000 with volume, a jump to $92,000 could trigger a "short squeeze," forcing bears to buy back and pushing the price even higher.

2. Ethereum (ETH) Critical Levels

Support Target ($2,600 – $2,700): Ethereum has been underperforming BTC. Whales are currently defending the $2,800 level, but a failure here targets a major liquidity pocket at $2,650.

Resistance Target ($3,000): This remains the primary psychological and technical barrier. Large sell orders (supply) are clustered just above $3k, which may cap any relief rallies for now.

Why is this happening now?

The liquidation spike is being amplified by macro "Black Swans":

The Greenland Conflict: Tariff threats between the U.S. and Europe have created a "Sell America" sentiment, affecting U.S.-heavy assets like BTC.

Miner Capitulation: An Arctic winter storm in the U.S. has forced major mining pools (like Foundry USA) to curtail power, dropping the network hashrate by 30% and adding to the bearish narrative.

Historically, when liquidations hit $1 billion+ and the Fear/Greed Index drops to 20, the market is often "oversold" in the short term. This doesn't mean the bottom is in, but it does mean the "weakest hands" have likely been cleared out.