#NextFedChairPredictions

The next Federal Reserve Chair will be nominated by President Donald Trump to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026. Trump has reportedly completed interviews with multiple candidates and said he has a choice in mind, with an announcement expected very soon. This decision caps months of debate, speculation, and shifting market odds about who would be tapped for the job.
Across financial news outlets and political commentary, four or five main contenders have emerged from an initial field of around 10–11 candidates. Those finalists include a mix of central bankers, economists, and financial industry leaders each bringing a different reputation for monetary policy and economic experience.

1. Rick Rieder The Current Market Favorite
At this point in late January 2026, Rick Rieder the Global Head of Fixed Income at BlackRock has taken the lead in prediction markets as the most likely nominee for Fed Chair. These platforms show Rieder’s odds significantly higher than his rivals, with roughly 50–52% probability of being nominated.
Rieder’s rise is notable because, unlike many past Fed Chairs, he has no direct prior experience as a central banker or government policymaker. Instead, his strengths lie in deep fixed‑income market expertise and reputation as a practical, data‑driven investor. That background appeals to some in both Wall Street and the White House because it could signal a focus on macroeconomic stability and financial market confidence.
Supporters think Rieder could help balance market expectations with practical monetary policy, especially after a period of tension between the Trump administration and the Fed over interest rate decisions.
In terms of policy, Rieder has publicly suggested a federal funds rate near neutral levels to help stimulate economic activity, indicating he might lean toward more accommodative policies if confirmed.

2. Kevin Warsh Strong Institutional Experience
Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor and respected policy expert, remains the second‑most likely contender in many market predictions. His odds in markets are often just behind Rieder’s — for example, in the 30% range on prediction platforms.
Warsh brings a traditional central bank pedigree, having been at the Fed during major financial events and debates about monetary policy. Because of that experience, many analysts see him as someone who could reassure markets and policymakers alike about continuity and competence.
Importantly, Warsh represents a blend of establishment credibility and policy gravitas, which appeal to Senate confirmation processes that may be wary of outsider nominees. That institutional depth could make him a compromise candidate if political tensions around the Fed’s independence become important.

3. Christopher Waller The Technocrat Option
Christopher Waller, currently serving as a Fed Governor, is also discussed as a potential Chair though his odds in prediction markets tend to be lower than Rieder’s or Warsh’s. He has been involved in monetary policy decision‑making and discussions at the Federal Reserve, giving him a credible policy role from within the institution.
Unlike Rieder and Warsh, Waller offers a technocratic, apolitical reputation grounded in long experience with the Fed’s internal processes. Some economists and markets view this as a stabilizing factor, especially if broader political tensions between the White House and the Fed escalate.
If Waller were chosen, it would likely signal a preference for central bank continuity and operational expertise over political alignment.

4. Kevin Hassett — Once a Frontrunner, Now More Contested
Kevin Hassett, White House economic adviser, was previously considered a top contender due to his close alignment with President Trump’s economic views, especially on interest rates and credentials as a policy strategist.
However, his odds in current prediction markets are comparatively low (often under 10%), and there has been pushback from parts of the financial community concerned that his deep political ties could compromise the Fed’s independence.
While Hassett has strong political backing, hesitations about his candidacy reflect deep caution among bond investors and economic analysts about potential aggressive rate cuts or political influence if he leads the Fed.

5. Other Candidates and Possibilities
There are additional names on the broader shortlist — like Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision) or other unexpected outsiders — but these tend to have much lower market odds and public focus than the top four above.
One uniquely unusual possibility mentioned by analysts is that Jerome Powell, even after his term ends, could remain on the Fed’s board or find a path back into leadership — though this is seen as highly unlikely given political dynamics.

Summary & My View
At this stage in late January 2026:
Rick Rieder appears to be the leading candidate based on prediction markets and recent developments. His appeal comes from investing experience, market respect, and rising odds.
Kevin Warsh stands out as the institutionally experienced alternative who could reassure both markets and lawmakers.
Christopher Waller offers a strong technocratic choice that favors policy rigor over politics.
Kevin Hassett, despite early frontrunner status, faces concerns over perceived political ties and lower current odds.
The final decision will carry big implications for U.S. monetary policy, inflation, interest rates, and market expectations especially given ongoing tensions within the Fed and with the White House