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The market has indeed been a bit tough these past couple of days. Trump directly intervened, and I also started to buy the dip. I had a pretty good plan—thinking that the policy turmoil would be over, and Europe would calm down. But what happened? It didn't.
Where's the problem? Maybe the rhetoric wasn't negotiated properly; both sides are just arguing verbally. As a result, Europe directly targeted US assets, with Nordic pension fund leaders publicly stating that the risk premium on US assets has already increased. This made the market even more uncomfortable.
Although tariff pressures have temporarily eased, if Europe truly divests, the impact won't be on the same scale. Once European funds reprice US assets from a low-risk preference, requiring higher risk premiums to offset, the three anchors—US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar—will all be pulled simultaneously. That's the real issue.
What's more painful is that this tariff shock has been extended from a one-time event into a longer narrative. Europe has already started to incorporate geopolitical and policy uncertainties directly into the US asset pricing models. Once this is confirmed by investment committees, short-term reversal becomes unlikely. The market's next pain point won't be whether tariffs are canceled but whether global capital will demand higher costs for US assets.
If Europe truly reduces its holdings, then the rebound in risk assets is just a technical correction, not a trend-driven inflow.
Back to Bitcoin data. The turnover rate remains relatively low, mainly due to short-term investors selling. Overall investor sentiment is still relatively stable, with no signs of panic deepening. From the current situation, the tariff crisis has been temporarily resolved, but the next variable depends on how the attitudes of European and American capital evolve.
Europe's move is a bit aggressive, directly changing the pricing model, now the rebound is all fake falls
Three anchors being pulled together, in plain terms, America's credit is shrinking
Wait for the investment committee to confirm this matter, there's no way to turn things around in the short term
The low turnover rate of BTC is even more heartbreaking, the real sell-off hasn't even started yet
Europe is really getting serious, once risk pricing is incorporated into the model, it needs to be recalculated
With such a low BTC turnover rate, it indicates that big players are still waiting, so there's no need to worry too much about short-term retail traders
The key still depends on the attitude of Europe and America, this is the real pit ahead
US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar are being pulled in different directions, just thinking about it gives me a headache
If Europe really starts large-scale reduction of US assets, then our current rebound will indeed be just a flash in the pan
The BN turnover rate is so low, indicating that big players are still on the sidelines, short-term panic selling is not a concern
The key still depends on how long the US-Europe feud can last; once the pricing model is incorporated, it's over
The collapse of US bonds, US stocks, and the dollar all at once is overwhelming to think about
However, based on on-chain data, we haven't reached the stage of panic selling yet, so that's somewhat of a comfort
The real risk isn't tariffs, but whether global capital's confidence in the US has shaken
By the way, how much did you buy in at? Are you still holding or adding to your position now?
Europe is really about to reduce its allocation compared to the US stocks, our recent rebound is just a mirage
Is the rhetoric not settled? Both sides are struggling, and the market ends up caught in the middle
Risk premium soaring, the three anchors—US bonds, US stocks, and this—are all loosening at the same time, it's truly uncomfortable
Wait, is this the legendary technical rebound trap?
The tariff crisis isn't over; it's just shifted from the surface to the pricing model
Bitcoin's turnover rate is low, short-term investors are still cutting losses, quite interesting
US assets are being re-priced, short-term gains are unlikely
Europe is playing its hand aggressively, directly stabbing at US assets
The issue isn't tariffs anymore; it's whether global funds will still give the dollar a premium
Once the divestment issue is incorporated into the pricing model, it’s impossible to reverse in the short term.
US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar are all under attack, just thinking about it gives me a headache.
This is no longer a tariff issue; it’s a fundamental trust crisis.
The low turnover rate of BTC is actually a good sign, indicating that no one has truly given up.
Europe is really ruthless, directly targeting US bonds, this is true financial warfare
The key is that once risk premium is incorporated into the pricing model, there's no way to turn back in the short term
If the rhetoric isn't settled, then mutual accusations will continue, and there will be more trouble ahead
A low BTC turnover rate is a good thing, indicating no panic selling
This is not about tariffs anymore, but whether global funds will continue to hold onto the US
It feels like a technical rebound, but the true trend inflow hasn't arrived yet
The attitude of European and American capital is the next key variable