How much is gold really worth? The 2026 forecasts from Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and the new geopolitical scenario

Gold continues to surprise markets. In 2025, it hit a historic record with a 64% increase, the best annual performance since 1979, and now major investment banks are further raising their forecasts for future prices. But what is truly fueling this seemingly unstoppable rally?

The momentum of recent months: when geopolitics reignites buying

The demand for safe-haven assets has come back strongly in recent weeks. Following recent developments in Venezuela, with tensions reigniting uncertainty in financial and energy markets, investors have once again sought refuge in the precious metal. According to Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Germany, these unexpected events add to existing concerns about geopolitics, energy supply, and monetary policy, creating a multiplier effect on demand.

It is precisely in moments like these that gold’s defensive value becomes clear. When interest rates remain low, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets decreases, making the metal even more attractive as a store of value. Morgan Stanley, in its January 5 report, explicitly acknowledged that Venezuelan events could further strengthen this appeal, although the bank has not yet formally incorporated these developments into its official forecasts.

Three price scenarios: gold forecasts toward 2026

Estimates from major financial institutions vary slightly but all point toward a significant rise. Morgan Stanley predicts that gold will reach $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, an upward revision from its October 2025 estimate (then set at $4,400). The escalation indicates how rapidly the macroeconomic landscape is evolving in favor of the metal.

Even more optimistic is JPMorgan, which recently revised its outlook to forecast $5,000 per ounce in the same period, with a long-term target of $6,000. Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s global commodities strategist, emphasized that although the gold rally has not been linear, the factors driving it are not exhausted yet.

ING also aligns with this positive scenario. In its January 6 report, the bank reaffirmed that ongoing central bank purchases and expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will continue to support the precious metal.

The true drivers of the gold forecast: weak dollar, institutional buying, and central banks

What is truly fueling this rally? Morgan Stanley identifies a combination of structural factors. The Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle is the main foundation: lower rates reduce bond yields and increase the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold. Additionally, the weakening dollar, which fell about 9% in 2025—the worst annual performance since 2017—plays a role. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers, boosting global demand.

But the most relevant phenomenon is probably the behavioral shift of central banks. They have significantly increased their gold purchases, to the point that the gold share in global reserves has surpassed that of U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996. As Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley’s metals and commodities strategist, noted, investors no longer see gold solely as an inflation hedge but as a barometer sensitive to monetary policies and geopolitical risks.

Gold-backed ETFs have recorded record capital inflows, signaling broad participation from both institutional and retail investors. “Even non-professional buyers have joined the rally,” Morgan Stanley analysts write, highlighting how expectations of a further weakened dollar and the broader trend of decoupling from dollar-denominated assets are amplifying demand.

Silver and copper: other metals to watch in 2026

While gold remains the guiding star, Morgan Stanley does not overlook the performance of other metals. Silver experienced an extraordinary 147% growth in 2025, the strongest ever recorded, driven by structural supply shortages, industrial demand, and investment inflows. ING analysts describe the outlook through 2026 as “positive,” thanks to robust demand from solar panels and battery technologies.

Regarding base metals, Morgan Stanley maintains a constructive view on aluminum and copper. Aluminum is scarce outside Indonesia, while renewed U.S. purchases are pushing prices upward. Copper at the London Metal Exchange hit a historic high of $13,387.50 per ton this week, supported by American imports and persistent supply disruptions from mines. Nickel is also under attention due to risks of disruption from Indonesia, although the bank warns that many of these risks may already be priced into the market.

The overall picture: what it means for investors

The $4,800–$5,000 gold forecast is not a random extrapolation but the result of a convergence of well-defined macroeconomic theses: low rates, currency weakening, persistent geopolitical tensions, and strategic diversification by central banks. These structural factors, unlike short-term speculative movements, have the capacity to sustain a prolonged rally.

As Morgan Stanley summarized, trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks are creating an environment where the search for safe assets remains indispensable. In this context, the gold forecast for the coming months is not just a numerical projection but a statement of confidence in the defensive properties of the precious metal amid a period of profound monetary and geopolitical transformations.