XRP to $10,000 in 2026? An analyst explains why it's an impossible mission

The cryptocurrency community is actively discussing extravagant predictions for XRP. Recently, Levi Rietveld from Crypto Crusaders voiced his opinion, strongly questioning the possibility of XRP reaching $10,000 within less than a year. His analysis focuses on fundamental economic constraints that make such a scenario mathematically impossible.

Where is the money? The problem of capital size

Rietveld posed a simple question: there is simply not enough capital in the world. For XRP to reach $10,000 per token, the total market capitalization would need to be in the tens of trillions of dollars. That is more than the estimated global money supply.

At the current price of $1.93, XRP is at a level similar to recent increases, but the path to $10,000 would require an unprecedented reallocation of global capital. The capital would have to come from existing stock markets, bonds, real estate, and public debt. Inflows into ETFs or adoption by the banking sector would not be enough to cover such a gap.

Token supply as a rigid valuation ceiling

XRP has a massive supply—about 61 billion tokens in circulation with a total supply approaching 100 billion. Ripple also controls an additional ~34 billion tokens in escrow. This structure naturally limits growth potential, regardless of market demand.

With such token availability, every price increase quickly translates into an astronomical valuation. Rietveld argued that this technical limitation alone makes achieving the predicted target within the assumed timeframe impossible.

What do historical data say?

The past does not guarantee the future but provides a reference point for a realistic assessment. XRP’s all-time high is below $4. Even during the 2025 cryptocurrency bull run, the price did not stay above $2.50 for an extended period.

This history of growth suggests that jumps to five-figure prices within a month are wishful thinking, not a realistic projection. Regulatory stability and deep integration with the decentralized finance ecosystem remain additional challenges.

More realistic scenarios instead of fantasies

Rietveld specifically criticized prophet Jake Claver, who promotes targets of $10,000 for XRP. In the chart, the analyst indicated a 0% chance of success for such a forecast. Instead, Rietveld considers the predictions of Changelly in the range of $3–$5 to be much more justified.

His criticism does not stem from pessimism but from basic economic mathematics. Anyone promoting extreme targets without considering capital constraints has “not done their homework,” as the analyst summarized.

Even aggressive institutional adoption will not provide the capital needed to support such extreme valuations in such a short time. The discussion should focus on more achievable goals that have a chance of realization under current macroeconomic conditions.