Key Factors That Could Drive Bitcoin Price and the Crypto Market in 2026

After a relatively quiet 2025, Bitcoin started 2026 with an impressive breakout, surpassing the previous low around $80,000 and quickly approaching the $100,000 mark. As of the beginning of the year, BTC is trading around $93,300, after reaching a high of $97,000 at one point. The nearly 7% increase since the start of the year has also driven many other cryptocurrencies to recover strongly. According to analysts from NYDIG Research and Wintermute, the current rally is driven not only by technical factors but also reflects major changes in the global economic-political landscape as well as shifts in capital flow structures within the crypto market. These changes are creating three key “catalysts” that could continue to push prices higher in 2026. Why Is Bitcoin Rallying Strongly at the Start of 2026? Political Instability and Currency Risks in the US According to Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, the most important short-term factor driving Bitcoin is political instability in the US. Tensions between President Donald Trump and the (Federal Reserve), especially Trump’s continuous criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates as requested, have caused investors to worry about potential political interference in monetary policy. History has shown that periods of deep political intervention in the Fed often lead to high inflation, currency depreciation, and damage to the central bank’s credibility. In this context, Bitcoin—a decentralized asset with a fixed supply—is seen as a “safe haven” against currency risks. Global Monetary Environment Loosening Another factor is that the total global money supply has increased to record highs. While gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have all hit new highs, Bitcoin—as a “digital gold”—has been growing more slowly. NYDIG suggests that BTC is entering a “catch-up” phase with traditional safe-haven assets. Significant Reduction in Selling Pressure The market has also been relieved from some “weights” that previously weighed down prices: Loss harvesting to optimize taxes ended with the new year. The selling pressure from large liquidations in October 2025 has also been absorbed. As a result, the market enters 2026 with a lighter “load” of supply for sale. Is the Four-Year Halving Cycle Over? For many years, the crypto community believed that Bitcoin operates on a four-year cycle linked to the halving event—when mining rewards are cut in half. According to the old model, after each halving, BTC would typically surge, followed by altcoins, then enter a bubble and crash. However, Wintermute suggests that this cycle may have ended. 2025 did not see the explosive rally expected. Instead, the market shows signs of shifting from speculation to a more mature asset class, with increasing participation from financial institutions. A structural change is the emergence of institutional investment products such as ETFs and digital asset trusts. These products create stable capital flows for large-cap cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH but do not spread to the rest of the market as before. The “asset rotation” mechanism—shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to altcoins—is weakening significantly. Three Catalysts That Could Drive Crypto Prices in 2026 According to Wintermute, the market’s development this year will largely depend on whether capital flows expand beyond large-cap assets. The following three factors will play a key role:

1. Expansion of Institutional Investment Products Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have attracted enormous capital. If in the near future, ETFs related to other coins like Solana or XRP are approved and widely traded, institutional money could flow into more assets, sparking a new wave of price increases across the market.
2. Wealth Effect from Bitcoin and Ethereum A strong rally in BTC and ETH could generate a “wealth effect,” where investors take profits from the large-cap coins and reinvest in altcoins. If this mechanism reappears, the market could see a spreading growth cycle similar to previous years.
3. Retail Capital Flows Returning to Crypto In 2025, retail investors mainly focused on AI stocks, rare earths, and quantum computing. If risk sentiment returns to cryptocurrencies, new stablecoins could flow into the market, providing additional upward momentum. Conclusion Bitcoin is entering 2026 on a more favorable macroeconomic footing, with reduced selling pressure and increasing participation from institutional capital. However, whether the market will break out strongly depends on the ability to expand liquidity beyond large-cap assets. If altcoin ETFs are approved, the wealth effect reemerges, and retail investors re-enter, the crypto market could enter a new growth cycle—different from the traditional four-year model.