This important signal indicates: Is Bitcoin STH giving up, what will happen next?

Bitcoin (BTC) - Current Price: $92.90K | 24h Change: -2.03%

The Bitcoin market has just experienced a sharp correction, and what concerns many investors is the behavior of a specific group: those holding Bitcoin over the past 155 days. According to Axel Adler Jr., we are witnessing a very important market signal that most people are not fully aware of. To understand what the signal is and why it matters, we need to delve into on-chain data.

What does on-chain data reveal?

Not based on intuition but from the numbers. Currently, two main on-chain indicators are sending very clear signals:

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) ( - The 7-day average has fallen below 1.0, meaning short-term investors are selling at a loss overall. This is not a normal figure in any market.

P/L indicator per Block is at -3, reflecting extremely negative market sentiment among recent buyers. When both indicators decline sharply together, it paints a clear picture: selling pressure is high.

What’s happening beneath the surface?

When talking about the “giving up” of short-term investors )STH(, we are describing a specific psychological market phenomenon. These investors can no longer withstand the pressure; they sell at lower prices than they bought, often due to fear or panic.

But what is the signal in this context? It is evidence that “weak hands” are leaving the market. First, Bitcoin is shifting from those without long-term plans to investors who can endure volatility. Second, history shows that giving up often occurs before market reversals.

However, an important warning: giving up does not automatically lead to an immediate recovery. The market needs enough buying power to absorb this selling. If demand remains weak, prices can continue to decline.

When will we see signs of recovery?

For Bitcoin to turn around, Adler points out that specific conditions must be met:

• SOPR must rise back above 1.0, indicating STH (short-term holders) are starting to sell at a profit
• The P/L per Block indicator must return to positive territory, signaling a shift in investor psychology

When these indicators reverse, we will see:

• Selling pressure from panicked investors decrease
• Increased confidence among market participants
• Opportunities for long-term accumulation
• Overall market sentiment improving

Until then, what is the signal if not a warning to be cautious?

What do most investors misunderstand?

Many mistakenly believe that the giving up of STH automatically means the market bottom is near. The truth is, it’s only part of the bigger picture. There must be a combination of:

• Decreased selling pressure
• Increased buying activity
• Accumulation indicators showing big players are entering

If only giving up occurs without buying support, the market will continue to hit the bottom.

How do short-term and long-term investors differ?

Short-term )STH( investors have held Bitcoin for about 155 days recently, while long-term )LTH( investors hold for a longer period. The difference is significant:

• The giving up of STH usually happens during normal corrections when sentiment is weak
• The giving up of LTH only occurs in deeper bear markets, indicating much more serious market pressure

When LTH give up, that’s when the market is truly in danger.

What should you do now?

Recognizing what the signal is is very useful, but actions should be balanced:

If you are a long-term investor: This period may present accumulation opportunities, though pinpointing the exact bottom is always challenging.

If you are a short-term trader: Be cautious until on-chain data shows clear improvements.

If you are a new investor: Dollar-cost averaging is generally safer than trying to catch the bottom.

Remember: giving-up phases are psychological tests. Emotions often peak just before the market has a chance to reverse. A clear investment plan is always more important than reacting to every signal.

Common questions investors ask

Who are STH?
Short-term investors are those who bought Bitcoin within the past 155 days. They are more sensitive to price fluctuations than LTH.

How long does the giving-up phase last?
It can last from a few days to several weeks, depending on market conditions and overall sentiment. There’s no fixed timeframe.

Does giving up always lead to the bottom?
No. While it often appears before the bottom, it’s not guaranteed. There must be enough buying support to reverse the trend.

How can I monitor these indicators?
Platforms like Glassnode, CryptoQuant, and LookIntoBitcoin provide on-chain data, including free access.

Should I sell Bitcoin during this phase?
It depends on your strategy. Giving up often creates buying opportunities, whereas panic selling in a fear-driven market can lock in losses. Consult with a financial advisor.

What’s the difference between STH and LTH?
The giving-up of STH is more common during corrections, while LTH giving up usually occurs in deeper bear markets, indicating more severe market pressure.

Understanding these on-chain signals will help you make more informed investment decisions during Bitcoin’s volatile periods.