2025 TGE Crash Reality Check: Why 4 Out of 5 Projects Are Trading Below Launch Valuations

The crypto market’s TGE landscape tells a brutal story this year. Recent analysis by Signum Capital examined 118 token generation events throughout 2025, revealing that the vast majority of these projects have significantly underperformed since their public debut.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

According to the research, an alarming 84.7% of the 118 projects tracked—that’s 100 out of every 118 tokens—have fallen below their initial valuation levels. To put it more bluntly: roughly 4 in every 5 tokens launched this year are underwater. The median decline sits at a staggering 71% FDV drop (or 67% when measured by market cap), meaning the typical failing project has lost nearly three-quarters of its valuation since issuance.

This isn’t a minor correction. For tokens that fallen below their TGE price, the damage is severe and systematic. Only a narrow 15% of the entire cohort has managed to stay above their original launch valuation—a sobering statistic that questions the sustainability of many 2025 TGE projects.

What This Reveals

The data paints a picture of a market flooded with overvalued launches. Whether measured by FDV deterioration or direct MC compression, the story remains consistent: institutional pricing at TGE has vastly disconnected from what the open market is willing to pay. This gap suggests either aggressive overvaluation at issuance or fundamental issues with project execution post-launch.

The reality is that if you participated in a typical 2025 TGE, you’re likely sitting on substantial losses—a reminder that generation events are no guarantee of success, regardless of the hype surrounding them.