ETH 4H Trend Analysis: Can MA100 Hold Steady and Form a Bottom?

The price is currently moving within a narrow range formed by the key moving averages MA50 (3249.92) and MA100 (3199.48), which is a typical state of bullish and bearish equilibrium and also a brewing zone for the next round of a breakout trend.

Core Trading Framework:

1. Bearish Suppression Logic:
· Structural Basis: The price has confirmed a break below the previous upward channel and is trading below the bearish moving average band formed by MA5-MA30 (3252-3303). This defines the short-term trend as downward.
· Momentum Basis: MACD has formed a death cross below the zero line, with a green momentum histogram (-32.7), indicating that the bearish momentum on the 4-hour level is being released, but no exhaustion signal has appeared yet.
· Key Resistance Level: MA50 (~3250). This position is the first critical threshold in the current downtrend. If the price cannot effectively break through this level on a rebound, it indicates the rebound is weak, and the bearish structure will continue.
2. Bullish Defense Logic:
· Support Basis: MA100 (~3199) is currently the nearest technical support anchor point. The price finds temporary respite near this level, indicating some technical buying interest.
· Structural Requirement: For the bulls to reverse the 4-hour downtrend, two steps are necessary: first, a volume breakout and stabilization above MA50 to bring the price back inside the moving average system; second, further challenge MA30 (3303) and the previous breakdown point (~3330) to disrupt the downtrend structure.
· Current Limitation: At present, the momentum near the support level is only a temporary pause, and no effective bottom reversal structure has formed.

Conclusion: The 4-hour chart indicates that the market is at a critical technical equilibrium point. The task now is not to predict the direction but to clearly observe how the price tests the resistance at MA50 and the support at MA100. #欧美关税风波冲击市场