$BTC price enters a decisive phase as macro risk meets a bullish structure

$BTC has moved into a new phase after breaking above a consolidation ceiling that capped upside since late November. BTC is now trading above former resistance, showing sustained participation rather than hesitant range behavior. This shift is happening as markets remain highly sensitive to the pending U.S. Supreme Court tariff decision.

Even without a final ruling, Bitcoin is already reacting to probabilities, not headlines. According to Polymarket, there is roughly a 67% chance that the court strikes down the tariffs. That outcome would imply potential refunds exceeding $600 billion, easing fiscal constraints and lifting liquidity expectations. Historically, that environment favors risk assets, and Bitcoin tends to respond early when liquidity assumptions improve.

A ruling that upholds the tariffs would still matter. It would reinforce tighter trade conditions and maintain uncertainty around costs, which could slow risk appetite and cool $BTC momentum. This is why Bitcoin remains exposed even before a verdict. Markets trade expectations first, and price reflects that tension.

Structurally, BTC has confirmed a breakout from a cup-and-handle formation, clearing the $94,000 supply zone and flipping it into support. Price is now trading near $97,000 after a strong move fueled by recent CPI data. Buyers are in control, and the character of the move suggests expansion rather than a false break.

Momentum indicators reinforce that view. Directional strength has surged, showing buyer dominance and trend confirmation rather than exhaustion. With structure aligned and participation strong, a rotation toward the $100,000 level appears increasingly likely.

The key level to watch is $94,000. As long as BTC holds above that zone, the breakout remains valid. A breakdown would weaken the setup and shift price back into consolidation. Until then, Bitcoin is trading from a position of strength, absorbing macro uncertainty while maintaining structural control.