Will Ethereum surge to $4000 tomorrow? The probability is really low. The current market price is around $3100, and to reach $4000 requires nearly a 30% increase, which clearly exceeds the normal fluctuation range.

From a technical perspective, the $3100 level is a hard barrier. Breaking through upwards would require sustained upward momentum to reach $4000, but currently, this momentum is clearly insufficient. Major platforms' institutional forecasts generally focus on the $3500 to $3600 range, indicating that the market's collective expectation does not support a sharp rally.

Some mention political factors could stimulate the market, which does have some effect; short-term sentiment can be stirred. However, relying on this alone to drive such a huge increase? It’s unlikely in reality. The market's short-term temperament is still dictated by technical analysis and institutional funds, and pure rhetoric-driven momentum is limited.

Rather than obsessing over whether $4000 can be reached, it’s better to focus on the gains and losses at the critical $3100 level, while closely monitoring the inflow and outflow of funds in Ethereum spot ETFs—these practical indicators often reveal more about the situation. The market is ever-changing, and ultimately, it depends on real-time trading conditions.