Market trends are always born out of despair and grow through hesitation. Truly profitable traders are not judged by who predicts the right direction, but by who survives longer.

When I first entered the market, I was obsessed with technical indicators. Staying up late to watch K-lines, drawing trend lines, studying various parameters — it was as if I had found a foolproof formula. At that time, my focus was solely on precise entry points, as if a single penny’s difference in timing could mean the difference between heaven and hell.

But the market taught me many lessons. Over the years, I gradually understood: predicting the right direction is only the first step. What truly determines whether you can survive and profit in the crypto market is your understanding of risk.

Recently, I encountered a very representative moment. An opportunity was right in front of me: from a macro trend perspective, the probability of an upward move was indeed high. The problem was, the entry point was quite awkward — there was room above, but there was also clear support below. This kind of position is most vulnerable to shakeouts; a 10% to 15% pullback is common.

A few years ago, I would have rushed in without hesitation. After all, the trend was correct, and as long as I held on, I could make money. But this time, I stopped myself. I didn’t ask how much I could earn; instead, I asked three questions:

**First question: If I’m wrong about the direction, how much am I prepared to lose?** Where is my stop-loss? Can I accept this loss calmly? Or will I regret, add to my position, or gamble further once stopped out?

**Second question: If I’m right about the direction, how much potential profit is there?** Is the risk-to-reward ratio worth the gamble? If I can make 2 dollars for every 1 dollar risked, is this trade worth it?

**Third question: How much volatility could this trade experience?** Can my current position withstand such fluctuations? Or will I be emotionally defeated once the price pulls back, leading me to cut losses at the worst possible point?

By analyzing these three questions step by step, I realized that although the trend was correct this time, the combination of win rate and risk-reward ratio didn’t justify going all in. So I chose to wait and observe, or only take a small position to test the waters.

And what was the result? That wave of market rebound indeed occurred, but the shakeout during that period exceeded 20%. Many who rushed in were shaken out during that correction — even though the overall trend was ultimately correct, poor position and risk management turned profits into losses.

This has been my deepest insight from recent years of trading: markets are always there, opportunities are always there. But success or failure in trading is often not due to technical analysis failure, but due to insufficient risk awareness and reckless position sizing.