The recently released December US employment data shows an interesting contradictory phenomenon. On the surface, the unemployment rate of 4.4% fell below expectations, and the previous figure was also revised downward. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 50,000, but at least there was no deterioration in unemployment. However, a closer look reveals that the data for the previous two months was significantly revised—November's unemployment rate was raised to 4.5%, and non-farm payrolls were cut from the earlier estimate to 56,000.

What does this indicate? Nominal figures are indeed stable, but the underlying employment market has been weakening all along. Looking only at December's unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls can be misleading, but considering the downward revision for November, you can see the true picture of declining employment momentum.

For traders focused on macroeconomic cycles, this signal is very important—when the employment market begins to show this "good-looking numbers, but actual weakness" contrast, it often indicates that economic growth momentum is waning. Such data can influence central bank policy directions and, in turn, affect the performance of risk assets. While it may not trigger panic in the short term, sustained weakening of employment data over the long term can easily raise market concerns about growth prospects.