A well-known global macro investor from a prominent fund recently shared his views on the future of Bitcoin. He believes that Bitcoin's current trajectory resembles an S-curve characteristic of internet development rather than the common power-law growth pattern.

This assessment is quite interesting—he suggests that if Bitcoin enters a sideways consolidation in the next year, the power-law trend line might adjust downward to around $65,000, which could become a key support level at that time. Of course, this scenario still needs time to be validated, and it is premature to draw conclusions now.

Regarding the hotly debated view within the community that "the halving cycle has ended and a new structural bull market is imminent," he remains cautious. It’s not that halving has no impact on the market, but he questions the idea of "saying goodbye to the bear market" from now on. After all, historical data shows that the cyclical nature of the crypto market is quite evident.

Based on current data, Bitcoin’s short-term defense line is at $65,000 (the previous high), and from a long-term power-law trend perspective, the next support level could be at $45,000. Investors need to carefully consider whether this market rally will truly be different from previous ones.