Last night around 2-3 am, the market completed a typical shakeout move by the big players—achieving two goals through rapid fluctuations: first, clearing out floating positions; second, trapping some short positions. From the bullish perspective, this shakeout has basically been completed, many retail traders have been shaken out, and market sentiment has been released.

I personally opened a long position at 16.93, and my account has already been eroded by 162 USDT in fees, effectively lowering my cost basis to 16.1. There's an interesting phenomenon here—the design of the funding rate settled every hour actually creates a natural asymmetry between long and short positions.

Let's do a simple probability model: assuming a 50% chance of price going up or down, with a 0.5 increase or decrease in the next hour. If a long position wins, the profit is the actual price difference, with fees continuing to eat into the cost, but overall still profitable. The problem lies with the shorts—even if they win, half of their earnings must be paid out to cover funding fees, which effectively cuts the gains from short positions by half.

Looking at the profit ratio from another angle: the expected profit for longs is 75%, while for shorts it's only 25%. This isn't just market randomness but a result of the contract design's cost structure. For traders, understanding this fee mechanism is more important than simply chasing price movements.