Soybean Futures Stage Modest Turnaround After Monday's Downturn

VitaliksTwin · 2026-01-04T15:35:53+00:00

The soybean market shows signs of recovery after recent losses, with modest gains in futures prices. However, open interest declines and concerns over export demand persist, influenced by geopolitical tensions and significant year-on-year shipment reductions.

VitaliksTwin

2026-01-04 15:35:53

Abstract generation in progress

The soybean complex is attempting a recovery on Tuesday, with prices showing modest upward momentum after Monday’s broader weakness across the complex. Soybeans futures recovered 3-4 cents during the session, reversing a portion of Monday’s 9-10 cent losses in the front-month contracts.

Contract-Specific Performance and Position Flow

The Jan 26 contract closed Monday at $10.49 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents, but has recovered 3 1/2 cents in the current session. Mar 26 Soybeans traded down 9 cents to $10.63 1/2, also climbing 3 1/2 cents intraday, while May 26 settled at $10.75 1/4 after a 9-cent decline and is currently up 3 1/4 cents.

Open interest deterioration continues to characterize the market, with positions declining 15,996 contracts Monday. The January contract saw particularly notable liquidation ahead of First Notice day on Wednesday, with open interest down 32,102 contracts. The nearby cash bean market is valued at $9.80 3/4, down 8 cents from the prior session. Soymeal futures lost $2.50, settling at $4.90/ton, while Soy Oil managed gains of 6-10 points supported by crude oil’s modest recovery.

Export Market Pressures Persist

The USDA reported a private export sale of 100,000 MT of soybeans bound for Egypt on Monday, though broader export trends remain concerning. The weekly Export Inspections report highlighted shipments of 750,312 MT (27.57 mbu) in the week ending 12/25—a significant 19.3% decline from the previous week and 54.4% lower than the same week a year ago.

Regional demand patterns show China claimed 135,417 MT of shipments, with 127,017 MT directed to Egypt and 89,227 MT to Vietnam. Cumulatively, the marketing year total now stands at 15.396 MMT (565.71 mbu), representing a concerning 46.3% deficit compared to the same period last year.

Geopolitical Headwinds Weigh on Sentiment

Beyond fundamental factors, Chinese military drills conducted around Taiwan have amplified geopolitical uncertainty, creating additional selling pressure as market participants assess potential trade policy implications amid U.S.-China tensions. This external risk premium compounds the underlying softness in export demand, limiting the durability of any turnaround attempt.

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