## What's Driving Major Asset Classes in 2026? Here's What Wall Street Titans Are Betting On

As we enter 2026, financial institutions are deeply divided on where the biggest opportunities lie. After 2025's rollercoaster ride across commodities, currencies, and digital assets, the coming year promises even more volatility—and potential. Let's unpack what the smartest money is positioning for.

### **The Precious Metals Story: Gold and Silver Lead the Charge**

Gold's 60% surge in 2025—its best year since 1979—has set the stage for what many see as a continuation of this bull run. The World Gold Council isn't backing down from bullishness, predicting gold could climb another 5% to 15% in 2026, with extreme scenarios pointing to gains of 15% to 30% if the Fed accelerates rate cuts and geopolitical tensions spike.

Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 per ounce by year-end, while Bank of America is even more aggressive at $5,000/oz. The thesis? Persistent central bank demand, expanding U.S. fiscal deficits, and the likelihood of further dollar weakness will keep supporting prices.

Silver, meanwhile, is stealing the spotlight. Having outpaced gold's gains in 2025, the Silver Institute warns of a structural supply shortage persisting into 2026. UBS is surprisingly bullish, raising its target to $58–60/oz with upside potential to $65/oz. Bank of America echoes this optimism with an identical $65/oz forecast, making silver the dark horse of the precious metals complex.

### **Cryptocurrencies at a Crossroads: Bitcoin and Ethereum's Divergent Paths**

The crypto world remains sharply divided heading into 2026. Bitcoin ($91.43K as of early January, up 1.85% in 24 hours) ended 2025 essentially flat despite earlier euphoria. Now comes the debate: Has it escaped its four-year cyclical trap, or is the bull market running out of steam?

Standard Chartered downwardly revised its Bitcoin target from $200,000 to $150,000, citing potential slowdowns in corporate treasury accumulation despite steady ETF inflows. Bernstein projects the same $150,000 level for 2026 but maintains Bitcoin is in an elongated bull cycle with potential for $200,000 by 2027. Morgan Stanley, however, warns the traditional four-year cycle persists and a correction could be imminent.

Ethereum ($3.14K, +1.41% in 24 hours) faced even fiercer 2025 volatility, also ending nearly flat. Yet optimism abounds. JPMorgan emphasizes the transformational potential of tokenization on Ethereum's infrastructure, while Tom Lee of Bitmain forecasts ETH could reach $20,000 in 2026, claiming the asset bottomed last year and is poised for a dramatic rally.

### **U.S. Equities Riding the AI Wave**

The Nasdaq 100's 22% gain in 2025 outpaced the S&P 500's 18%, marking three consecutive years of outperformance. Institutions expect this momentum to persist, fueled by relentless AI-driven capital expenditure. JPMorgan highlights that hyperscale data centre operators—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta—will sustain elevated spending, potentially reaching hundreds of billions cumulatively by 2026.

This tailwind could propel the S&P 500 toward 7,500, with Deutsche Bank's more bullish scenario pointing to 8,000 by year-end. The Nasdaq 100, by extension, could surpass 27,000 points. Semiconductor plays like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom stand to benefit most.

### **Currency Markets: A Tale of Divergence**

EUR/USD soared 13% in 2025—its best year in nearly eight years—as the dollar weakened. JPMorgan and Nomura expect further appreciation to 1.20 by year-end, while Bank of America targets 1.22. Morgan Stanley, however, presents a more nuanced view: EUR/USD could first push to 1.23 before retreating to 1.16 in the second half as U.S. economic outperformance reasserts itself.

USD/JPY tells a different story entirely. The pair fell roughly 1% in 2025 despite initial strength. Looking ahead, institutions are sharply divided. JPMorgan expects USD/JPY to rise to 164 (equivalent to approximately 4,900 yen to USD conversion ratios historically) as BOJ hike expectations are already baked in. Conversely, Nomura warns that narrowing rate differentials could unwind carry trades, sending USD/JPY to 140 if U.S. macro data disappoints.

### **Energy Markets: Oversupply Threatens Price Support**

Crude oil's nearly 20% decline in 2025 reflects OPEC+ output recovery and robust U.S. production growth. Looking ahead, oversupply concerns dominate. Goldman Sachs sketches a bearish scenario with WTI averaging $52/barrel and Brent $56/barrel in 2026. JPMorgan similarly flags downside, projecting WTI near $54/barrel and Brent around $58/barrel if supply surpluses persist and global demand growth moderates.

### **The Takeaway: Prepare for Divergence**

2026 won't offer a unified narrative. While gold, silver, and select cryptocurrencies attract bullish positioning, crude oil faces headwinds and currency markets remain deeply contested. The most prudent approach? Monitor the Fed's actual trajectory on rates, watch for geopolitical escalation, and track which way corporate treasury policies shift on Bitcoin. These three factors will likely determine which institutional forecasts hit the mark.