Mining in 2025: the most severe profit crisis in history against the backdrop of Bitcoin's ATH - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, future

# Mining in 2025: The Most Severe Profitability Crisis in Bitcoin History

The first cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high, but miners faced the most challenging economic conditions for operation ever. Their responses included both increasing hash rate and strengthening diversification into the AI sector.

Let’s recall what else made 2025 notable in the cryptocurrency mining industry.

• Bitcoin’s hash rate surpassed the symbolic 1 ZH/s mark.
• Growing network difficulty and stagnating prices hit the profitability of cryptocurrency mining.
• “Trump tariffs” did not shake US dominance in mining.
• Industry participants’ diversification into the AI segment accelerated.

Technically, the network has significantly strengthened

Bitcoin’s hash rate started the year at around 800 EH/s and reached a historic maximum of 1.15 ZH/s (7 DMA) in October. Amid autumn market declines, the indicator corrected but maintained the late August level of 1 ZH/s.

Hash rate (7 DMA). Source: Glassnode. Growth since January was about 25%. According to Coin Metrics, a significant contribution came from the widespread deployment of Antminer S21 units with energy efficiency of 13–16.5 J/TH depending on the model. Their share of total hash rate reached approximately 20% by October.

Hash rate by ASIC miner models. Source: Coin Metrics. The rally of Bitcoin after the election of Donald Trump as US president in November 2024 allowed the return of somewhat outdated ASIC miners like Whatsminer M32. Introduced in August 2020, these devices have an energy consumption of around 50 J/TH. Since January, the share of the Antminer S9, debuted in 2017 and with a power efficiency of about 93 J/TH, has been increasing. Overall, these ASIC miners generate about 15% of the hash rate.

The global Bitcoin mining fleet mainly consists of various Antminer S19 models, accounting for about half of the network’s computational power.

The difficulty of mining, correlated with hash rate, reached a historic maximum at the end of October at 155.98 T. Against this backdrop, MARA Holdings CEO Fred Thiel stated that the industry entered a very difficult period due to increasing competition and falling profitability.

The most serious profitability crisis in mining

Throughout the year, miners’ revenue generally followed Bitcoin’s price dynamics. Since July, the share of fees in total revenue fell below 1%. Miners’ revenue was almost entirely generated from block rewards. After the April 2024 halving, the reward is 3.125 BTC — averaging about 450 BTC per day.

Monthly miner income. Source: Newhedge. As a result, monthly income ranged from approximately $1.19 billion (April) to about $1.63 billion (August).

According to CoinShares, in Q2, the average cost to mine one Bitcoin for public miners was about $74 600. Including non-cash expenses like depreciation and stock-based compensation, the figure increased to $137 800.

Cost to mine 1 BTC among leading public miners. Source: CoinShares. Bitcoin’s price hit a record high of $126 080 in early October.

Hash price in July hit a year-to-date maximum of $63.9 per PH/s per day. In subsequent months, the profitability metric steadily declined under the pressure of rising network difficulty and competition.

Hash rate dynamics since the start of the year. Source: Hashrate Index. As a result of the November crash, Bitcoin fell below $83 000, and the hash price reached a yearly minimum of ~$35 per PH/s. Despite subsequent recovery, the indicator did not rise above $40.

Meanwhile, the median “cost per hash” among public miners in Q3 was about $44 per PH/s. This figure includes operational costs for equipment, corporate expenses, and financing costs. It indicated that even operators with efficient setups and competitive electricity rates were balancing on the edge of profitability.

“Hash price” for public miners. Source: TheMinerMag. Experts at TheMinerMag acknowledged that miners are operating under the most difficult profitability conditions in history.

The payback period for last-generation equipment exceeded 1,000 days — significantly longer than the time remaining until the next halving. Around April 2028, block rewards will decrease to 1.5625 BTC.

According to CoinShares forecasts, until then, hash price will stay in the $37–55 range. Breaking out of this corridor would require a substantial increase in Bitcoin’s price, as a rise in hash rate would absorb moderate rally in prices. Experts estimate that network computational power will reach 2 ZH/s by early 2027.

Forecast of hash price dynamics (black line). Source: CoinShares. Commenting on the difficult economic situation in the industry, CoinShares research head James Butterfill stated:

“Against this backdrop, a clear strategic divergence has formed in the industry. The growing cohort of miners has accelerated its shift toward AI infrastructure and high-performance computing, aiming to diversify away from increasingly competitive and unprofitable Bitcoin mining.”

Diversification into AI gains momentum

The trend of Bitcoin miners shifting toward serving the more profitable artificial intelligence sector became evident last year. In 2025, the trend expanded, and deals reached multi-billion dollar volumes.

CleanSpark CEO Matt Schultz noted at the SALT conference in Jackson Hole in August that industry participants used to talk about hash rate, but now they “discuss how to monetize megawatts.” According to TeraWulf CFO Patrick Flery, even with digital gold prices above $110 000, energy costs at that time absorbed up to half of miners’ revenue.

CleanSpark doubled its annual revenue through AI initiatives. Other industry companies also took notable steps:

• TeraWulf signed a 10-year contract with cloud platform Fluidstack for a total of $3.7 billion. Google acted as a financial guarantor, becoming the largest shareholder of the miner;
• Cipher Mining signed a lease agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS) worth $5.5 billion to support AI computing;
• IREN will provide Microsoft with cloud services based on GPU (GPU). The total value of the five-year agreement is about $9.7 billion.

One of the oldest public mining companies, Bitfarms, announced a gradual winding down of Bitcoin mining operations by 2027 and shifting toward AI infrastructure development.

Galaxy Digital also decided to fully reprofile the Helios mining center for AI needs under an agreement with hyperscaler CoreWeave. At the end of 2022, Mike Novogratz’s company bought the facility for (million from financially troubled Argo Blockchain, becoming a significant player in the hosting market for miners.

Riot Platforms Vice President Josh Kahn stated that the company no longer considers mining as an end goal but rather as a means to achieve other objectives. The main task is to maximize profit from access to electricity, including through more profitable business directions.

Even industry participants focused on diversification into AI continued to increase their own hash rate, albeit at different paces.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-e1bf5af9a48953abb6b50014bbc114fa.webp$65 Growth of public miners’ hash rate year-over-year (by September). Source: TheMinerMag. Among large public companies, the exception was Core Scientific, which was attempted to be acquired for (billion by CoreWeave. The hyperscaler was already a partner of the miner and expected that after the merger, cryptocurrency mining activities would be gradually phased out. Major shareholders of Core Scientific rejected the deal, considering the valuation too low.

One reason even actively expanding into AI miners increased hash rate is the cash flow generated by established cryptocurrency mining. Revenue allows funding current operations, as reconfiguring infrastructure requires significant capital investments and time.

CoinShares analysts noted that building and operating a Bitcoin farm typically costs about )000–1 million per MW, whereas for an AI data center, costs can reach $9 million. This significant difference is due to requirements for redundancy and reliability needed to achieve 99.99% uptime.

To cover rising costs, both for upgrading mining capacities and modifying infrastructure for high-performance computing, companies actively sought financing. As a result, the total debt of miners increased sixfold over the year — from $2.1 billion to $12.7 billion.

Another reason for maintaining an adequate share of Bitcoin hash rate is the expectation of potential reduction in competition in case of mass shutdowns of unprofitable miners. In this scenario, profitability for remaining operators would sharply increase due to declining network difficulty.

This was openly stated by MARA’s CEO. The company’s goal: to maintain such a level of mining costs that economic pressure would force at least 75% of competitors to shut down. However, reducing costs under current conditions is a goal for all industry players — companies are healing their balance sheets, cutting corporate expenses, and increasing the efficiency of their setups. Equipment manufacturers respond to miners’ requests.

ASIC miner manufacturers continue the technological race

In May, Bitmain introduced the flagship of its latest Bitcoin miner series, Antminer S23 Hydro, with a claimed energy efficiency of 9.5 J/TH. The comparison table below shows how the leading manufacturer has improved this parameter over the past two years.

![]$700 https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-6c0fe5acebcb07f439397a96eed5b049.webp$20 Energy efficiency of Bitmain’s latest two-generation ASIC miners. Source: CoinShares. In October, Canaan demonstrated a new generation of ASIC miners. The lineup included two air-cooled models — Avalon A16 (282 TH/s) and Avalon A16XP (300 TH/s). Their energy consumption coefficients are 13.8 J/TH and 12.8 J/TH respectively.

Earlier this year, the company also launched Avalon Mini 3 and Nano 3S devices, combining Bitcoin mining and home heating functions. Avalon Mini 3 generates a hash rate of 37.5 TH/s and provides up to 800 W of heating power. Avalon Nano 3S with 6 TH/s is a more powerful modification of the existing model.

In August, Jack Dorsey’s founded company Block introduced modular Proto Rig setups for Bitcoin mining. Developers claim these devices have advantages including increased lifespan and improved repairability. The solution reduces mining costs by 15–20%.

Bitdeer, as part of its roadmap, announced in September the SEALMINER A3 series. The air-cooled ASIC miner provides a hash rate of 260 TH/s with an energy efficiency of 14 J/TH. The A3 Hydro model offers 500 TH/s and 13.5 J/TH respectively.

American company Auradine opened pre-orders for third-generation Teraflux setups in November. According to the statement, miners are fully designed and manufactured in the United States. In Eco mode, the air-cooled model generates 240 TH/s with an energy efficiency of 10.3 J/TH.

The liquid-cooled system provides 600 TH/s and 9.8 J/TH. The immersion variant delivers 240 TH/s with a similar energy coefficient.

MicroBT presented the new WhatsMiner M70 series at the Bitcoin MENA 2025 conference in Abu Dhabi in December. The lineup includes three classes based on energy efficiency:

• 14.5 J/TH (initial M70);
• 13.5 J/TH (M70S);
• 12.5 J/TH (M70S+).

Air-cooled setups deliver hash rates from 214 TH/s to 244 TH/s.

Immersion cooling variants (M76 and M78) produce 336–476 TH/s.

Thus, over the past year, all leading Bitcoin miner manufacturers have updated their model lines.

In February, it became known that the issues with importing Antminer S21 and T21 last fall in the US worsened. Customs began delaying MicroBT and Canaan products, also based in China. According to Bloomberg, Bitmain is under investigation by US authorities over a potential national security threat.

Simultaneously, the trend of opening assembly plants in the US continued to expand. The process accelerated after Trump announced “liberation tariffs.” Tariffs of 24–36% on goods from Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia—where most ASIC miner manufacturing occurs—threatened to sharply reduce demand from American crypto miners. In 2024, they imported equipment worth $2.3 billion.

Following Canaan, MicroBT, and Bitmain, Bitdeer announced localization in the United States.

Some experts speculated that tariff wars could weaken the country’s dominance in Bitcoin hash rate, but this did not happen.

Mining geography — the leader remains the same

By the end of Q3, the US share of the global hash rate approached 40%. Russia retained second place with 15.5%, and China’s share exceeded 14%.

Hash rate distribution by country. Source: Hashrate Index. Overall, about 67.5% of the network’s computational power was controlled by three countries. However, the trends were mixed. Contrary to fears, the US continued to increase its dominance, while Russia gradually lost ground.

The history of mining in China clearly demonstrated that one of the most important factors influencing the geography of activity remains access to “cheap power.” Reuters confirmed that after the country’s crypto mining ban in 2021, mining did not cease but went “underground.”

After China’s share in the global Bitcoin hash rate dropped to zero, the indicator gradually recovered. This was largely facilitated by excess electricity in former mining centers like Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Sichuan Province, where owners of remote coal, wind, and hydroelectric plants had no buyers for their power.

Contrary to experts’ fears of miners migrating from the US due to “Trump tariffs,” hash rate in other jurisdictions showed no significant change. Neighboring Canada maintained a share of about 3%. The top-10 included Paraguay (3.9%), Oman (2.9%), and Ethiopia (1.9%).

Infrastructure in some countries is not capable of supporting the demands of cryptocurrency mining. In Kyrgyzstan, electricity shortages forced authorities to shut down all mining farms. Due to increased loads, energy conservation measures will continue until the end of the heating season.

Iran continued its crackdown on illegal miners — officials report that over 95% of the 427,000 devices in the country operate without licenses.

There are prospects for expanding Bitcoin network support geographically. In March, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko approved the construction of data centers in Mogilev region. Pakistani authorities announced plans to direct excess electricity to crypto mining and powering data centers for AI services.

Turkmenistan President Serdar Berdymukhamedov signed a law on virtual assets, allowing mining and operation of crypto exchanges. The law takes effect from January 1, 2026.

In terms of pools, the leading position of Foundry USA (25.7%) confirms US dominance in Bitcoin hash rate. This should be supplemented by MARA Pool (4.3%) and Luxor (3.2%).

Pool share of hash rate. Source: CloverPool. The top three include Bitmain-affiliated AntPool (22.1%) and F2Pool (13%), also registered in China.

Together, platforms from the two leading Bitcoin mining countries control over two-thirds of the network’s computational power.

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The share of revenue from AI services remains a small part of miners’ total revenue but is expected to grow as data centers are repurposed. Capital expenditure trends indicate that a significant portion of Bitcoin mining activity will likely shift again from large-scale data centers dominating recent years to smaller facilities.

In a more distributed business model, miners will focus on cheap energy sources that are underutilized by traditional consumers. For example, idle capacities of remote power plants, flare gas at oil fields, and other wasted resources. Participation in grid balancing could also be an option. All this suggests using container or even truck-based farms, ensuring compactness and mobility.

Less than two years remain until the next halving. It is unlikely that prices or on-chain activity will multiply during this period, so miners will need to adapt to even tighter economic conditions, which will worsen after the next block reward reduction.