#比特币价格走势与预测 Once again, someone is promoting the narrative that a whale is optimistic with a target price of 106,000. Don't rush to follow the trend; let me share some details only insiders know.

This "OG whale" is indeed a skilled operator—made nearly a billion in profit from short positions in October, quite ruthless. But what is the current situation? The account shows a total unrealized loss of $78.3 million, ETH long positions are unrealized loss at 58%, and SOL 20x leveraged long positions are unrealized loss at 292%. This isn't strategic planning; it's being trapped and adding to the position to average down.

The key question is: when a whale starts frequently making optimistic statements, you need to consider what they are actually doing. Promoting "bullish arguments" with such a large unrealized loss is more like looking for a sucker to take over their long positions. The impact of the Yen rate hike has indeed been digested, but can market sentiment really reverse so easily?

I've seen this trick too many times: big funds get trapped and then loudly proclaim optimism, retail investors follow suit, and then it turns into the classic "harvesting the little guys" script. With only $15.92 million in margin left and total holdings of $694 million, this leverage ratio already shows how much pressure there is.

One thing I've learned: it's fine to look at price forecasts, but you must also pay attention to the actual positions of the forecasters. When their words and positions contradict each other, the positions are always more honest than words.