2026-01-03 08:25:52

Recently, friends watching gold should have felt it — this thing is really tough.

From the 30-minute chart, gold is currently in a bearish-dominated situation, with rebound strength consistently insufficient. Multiple attempts to break through key resistance levels have failed, clearly indicating that the bulls have no say here.

The current situation is as follows: after a sharp decline, the market has entered a correction phase, with gold prices fluctuating between 4274 and 4403. The characteristics are quite obvious — rebounds to the upside are easily crushed down, and when prices fall to the lower end, they tend to bounce back, forming a typical "downtrend consolidation oscillation." Volume also reveals market sentiment: shrinking volume during rebounds and increasing volume during declines, indicating that the bears hold a psychological advantage.

What will happen next? Let me break down a few possibilities:

**The most likely scenario (about 60% probability)** — a breakdown and downward move. If the support at 4274 is effectively broken, gold may continue to probe lower, targeting 4200 or even lower. Key factors to watch include whether the US dollar continues to stay strong, whether risk aversion cools down, and whether the Federal Reserve signals more hawkish policies — these are all triggers.

**Next is maintaining the current state (about 30% probability).** If neither support nor resistance is broken, gold prices will continue to grind within this range. This situation is common before major events like non-farm payrolls or CPI releases, where both bulls and bears are holding back, temporarily reaching a balance.

**Finally, a rebound rally (about 10% probability)** — the least likely but not entirely dismissible. Significant positive news is needed to trigger this, such as a sudden escalation in geopolitical tensions, the Fed hinting at rate cuts, or a surprising sharp decline in non-farm data. The key is that a breakout above 4403 must be accompanied by volume and sustained, otherwise it could be a false breakout. If successful, it could test the 4450-4500 zone.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is based solely on short-term technical perspectives and does not constitute investment advice. Actual trading should be based on comprehensive fundamental analysis, and risk control is always the top priority.

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LiquidatedAgain

· 01-06 07:56

Once again, the cursed level @4274@ has hit me. My total losses are almost measured in W units. Will 4200 really break? I have a very clear calculation of the liquidation price... The only fear is waking up to find a margin call. Why does the 60% probability of a downward break feel so heartbreaking? Volume doesn't lie, and the shrinking volume rebound signal is too familiar. Last time I played like this, I went all in and got wiped out in the bottom. A 10% rebound trend is something I dare not ignore, because it’s the sound of a liquidation explosion.

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SatsStacking

· 01-04 23:53

Another day of being bullied by Golden Daddy A breakdown and decline are definitely coming, see you at 4200 This wave is just feeding the bears If the volume doesn't follow the rebound, you should have known it's hopeless long ago

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SatoshiLeftOnRead

· 01-03 08:55

Another day of gold fluctuation, the bears are really fierce. Be careful if it breaks 4274; if the dollar continues to stay strong, what should we do? Wait for the non-farm payrolls; entering now just means getting chopped up by the market. There are too many false breakouts during rebounds; the probability of this round is really low. Is 4200 the end point? Or will it continue downward? I don't know either.

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ApeDegen

· 01-03 08:47

It's that damn thing again, the short sellers don't give any chance to breathe at all. Really, after reading this analysis, I just feel like it's a grind, repeatedly rubbing within that range. If 4274 breaks, it probably needs to go further down; at that point, the dollar and risk aversion sentiment will be the key. Probability theory stuff—60% chance of a decline, 10% rebound... Feels like gambling on the Fed's mood. If it weren't for major positive news, there's no way to turn things around; I've seen too many fake breakouts.

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ser_ngmi

· 01-03 08:45

Gold has been really tough this wave, with the bears holding firm and smashing every rebound. It's the same pattern again, if 4274 breaks, it will continue to test lower levels. Why does it feel like everything has been falling recently... A 60% chance of breaking through? Then it depends on how the dollar performs; if the hawks make a move, there's basically no hope. I wouldn't dare bet on a 1% rebound if the situation remains unchanged; the probability is too poor. Range-bound oscillation is the most annoying, just waiting quietly for major events to be announced. If the Federal Reserve suddenly cuts interest rates, then there might be hope; otherwise, gold prices are likely to continue testing lows. It seems we have to wait for non-farm payroll data, or it will just be a cycle of new lows. The technicals are so weak, the bulls are not as strong as imagined. Honestly, with decreasing volume on rebounds and increasing volume on declines, the bears are clearly at an advantage.

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