Bitcoin is trading with roughly a 60% probability of outperforming gold throughout 2025. The analysis reflects growing institutional interest in crypto assets as an alternative to traditional safe-haven investments. While gold has historically served as a wealth preservation tool during economic uncertainty, Bitcoin's volatility and adoption trajectory present compelling risk-reward dynamics. The shift in market sentiment suggests investors are increasingly comfortable diversifying reserve portfolios with digital assets. Factors supporting Bitcoin's potential edge include global macro developments, currency depreciation concerns, and continued institutional accumulation. That said, traditional precious metals retain their role in defensive allocations. The real story here is the expanding conversation around how crypto assets fit within broader investment frameworks—it's no longer strictly either/or, but rather how much exposure makes sense for different risk profiles.