2026-01-03 06:27:23

The first week of the new year brought a "roller coaster" ride in U.S. Treasury yields—initially testing higher, but by Friday, they moved up and down unpredictably, as the market clearly waits in anticipation for next week's big events.

The real test is right in front of us. What will happen next week? Simply put, it all comes down to two words: employment.

On Wednesday, the ADP employment report kicks things off, but the main event is on Friday—the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Predictions among institutions are already underway. Capital Economics expects the unemployment rate to slightly decrease from 4.6% to 4.5%, while Citigroup has a contrary view, expecting it to rise to 4.7%. Such divergence is enough to make the market tremble a bit.

Why is employment data so critical? Because it directly determines the fate of rate cut expectations.

If employment remains strong, indicating the economy is still robust, the dream of rate cuts will be pushed further back, and interest rates will stay high longer. In such an environment, the crypto market faces high financing costs, naturally suppressing the appeal of risk assets.

Conversely, if employment cools significantly and the unemployment rate rises, the market will reignite expectations for rate cuts. Once those expectations heat up, the possibility of improved liquidity opens up, and risk assets like BTC and ETH may be re-priced.

The current situation is: don’t rush to bet. Prepare before the data is released; once announced, volatility could strike immediately. Sentiment tokens like DOGE and PEPE will be more sensitive, so it’s advisable to watch more and act less.

How do you see it? Will the unemployment rate rise or fall? Share your thoughts in the comments.

BTC3,58%

ETH5,03%

DOGE1,94%

PEPE1,78%

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DaoResearcher

· 01-04 14:42

According to the economic framework outlined in the white paper, the unemployment rate is essentially a signaling mechanism for systemic risk pricing—specifically referencing Bernanke's policy transmission paper. From the data perspective, the divergence between Cathie Wood Macro and Citi's forecasts already reveals the market's pricing uncertainty premium, which is reflected in the Token Weighted Voting model as fragmentation of voting rights. It is worth noting that the volatility of sentiment tokens like DOGE and PEPE precisely confirms the fragility of group decision-making in highly uncertain environments—quoting Vitalik's view, this is why pure democracy often fails in crypto governance. It is recommended to focus on on-chain data monitoring and wait until the expectations for rate cuts truly heat up, rather than being driven by emotions.

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fomo_fighter

· 01-03 06:53

If this non-farm payroll report exceeds expectations, we will all be left with nothing but the northwest wind.

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GasFeeNightmare

· 01-03 06:37

The weekly market has been uneventful, but the real drama is next week. The non-farm payroll data can truly determine life or death, so let's wait and see how the unemployment rate moves.

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BearMarketBarber

· 01-03 06:35

I just want to know, if the non-farm payrolls surprise us again this time, will retail investors get cut again? --- The gap between Citigroup and Kantar feels like flipping a coin to guess heads or tails. --- As long as the rate cut doesn't happen in a day, my BTC will stay in the cage, feeling exhausted. --- DOGE and PEPE, these two crazy things, will definitely surge once the data comes out, so better not to touch them. --- Actually, I just want to hear one honest answer—do you really not know, or are you all betting that the other side's judgment will be wrong? --- That wave on Friday, I felt like the market was pretending to be very calm, but in fact, everyone was holding their big moves. --- The rise and fall of the unemployment rate is completely unpredictable, so just lie down and wait for the result. --- With financing costs at a high level, doing anything in this environment feels like courting death.

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