2026-01-03 06:25:20

BTC is currently undergoing the second test of the resistance zone. According to the previous judgment framework, I only gave three chances to break through—if all three attempts fail, then it’s necessary to look downward for new accumulation zones.

Someone asked about the worst-case scenario: how low could the price go? As mentioned earlier, around 8 is basically the stage bottom. To add to that logic today: the 7.8 level is currently the cost line for miners. Although it has occasionally fallen below in history, these are usually brief, rapid touches, and rarely stay below for more than two weeks.

Why is this level so important? Everyone should understand the miners’ profit model—if the price continues to fall below mining costs, they have no incentive to maintain the network. This is not just a personal ledger issue for miners; it actually threatens the security and stability of the entire network. Miners create value for themselves while also incurring costs for network security and maintenance. When this balance is broken, either the price needs to rebound and climb back above, or the network’s value must grow to cover this gap.

So, in the short term, we are currently at the second test of this resistance. As for a larger cycle judgment, I won’t discuss that for now.

BTC-1,74%

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VirtualRichDream

· 01-05 12:10

This is the second test. If I try again, I might have to find the next bottom. Feeling a bit nervous.

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ContractCollector

· 01-04 06:07

7.8 is really the bottom line; miners will definitely not let it continue to fall.

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GasFeeCrier

· 01-03 15:56

If it can't break through the third time, it has to fall. The miners' cost line is the real bottom line.

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liquidation_watcher

· 01-03 06:54

Breaking three times but still not breaking through, ultimately it depends on whether the main force is willing to push it up. The idea of the miner cost line is mentioned every time it drops, but even when it breaks, the network doesn't seem to be affected much; it's a bit overhyped. It's best to hold at 7.8, if it can't hold, then wait for 8 to buy the dip. What’s really interesting is how it moves after breaking through; that's the real highlight.

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SerumSquirrel

· 01-03 06:52

The second test is to send a signal. If it doesn't work this time, we need to change our approach. I agree with this logic.

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GateUser-44a00d6c

· 01-03 06:48

If it really can't be broken the third time, you need to be prepared to move on.

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MetaNomad

· 01-03 06:36

All three chances were wasted, feeling a bit uncertain. The miner cost line is indeed a hard bottom line; the reasons why it can't fall further are quite clear. The second test has been done; either break through or find a accumulation zone, it's that simple. 7.8 is really the critical point, a brief dip below is okay, but if it continues, the network ecosystem will be in trouble. This logical cycle is complete; if the price can't go up, it has to rely on network value to pull it up.

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