Many traders are currently preparing to short or have already opened short positions. But before taking action, perhaps it's worth asking oneself a question: what is the actual logic behind shorting now?

If the answer is "a bear market has arrived, only short and not long," then I agree with this mindset. But let's review history: from March 2024's 73,800 to September's 52,500, it was just a weekly-level correction within a bull market. Looking at January to April 2025, from 110,000 down to 74,500, it was also a weekly adjustment within the bull market framework. Holding onto short positions now is essentially betting on a weekly rebound, so be mentally prepared.

If the answer is "it has risen too much and should fall," then let's do some calculations. How much has it fallen from 126,000 to now? Is it so outrageous to drop below 100,000? Or from another perspective, rising from 80,600 to the current level, the total increase isn't that exaggerated. Comparing mid-December's 84,500 to now, the increase is also moderate.

I once opened a short at a very high level, setting the take-profit at 82,500, and successfully exited. In contrast, many people's operations: going long at 110,000 and getting trapped, still trapped at 100,000. Now that it's fallen to over 80,000, they want to rebound to 90,000 and short again. Isn't this repeating previous mistakes?

Of course, falling to 80,000 or even 85,000 is possible. But the key is to position long at low levels. For example, allocate 1% of your position at 85,000, and 2% at 80,000. No matter how deep the decline, the January rhythm is about gradually building positions at the bottom, not rushing to short at the first rebound. Think about it: at the current 90,000 level, is the greater probability that it will fall further to 80,000 or rebound to 100,000? The obvious answer points to the latter.