The recent market action has indeed been fierce—BTC briefly dipped below the 90,000 level, ETH quickly dropped to the 2900 range, altcoins generally declined by double digits, and liquidation data frequently made headlines. Many traders have begun to waver, contemplating whether to cut losses and exit. But before hitting the sell button, it’s worth taking a moment to see whether this is truly a crash or just a shakeout by the main players.

**Shakeout and Crash, the Differences Are Huge**

They may seem similar at first glance, but their essence is completely different. A crash involves support levels being broken through layer by layer with no buffer, causing prices to fall like a free fall; a shakeout, on the other hand, appears brutal on the surface but the key support levels remain solid, with funds continuously stepping in below.

Looking at the specifics of this market movement: after BTC broke below 90,000, it quickly rebounded without further decline; ETH, although dipping into the 2900s, did not stabilize on the hourly chart. What does this indicate? Dense buy orders at the bottom, with the main force defending the market, unwilling to let retail investors absorb cheap chips.

Comparing this to the LUNA collapse makes it clear. During that real crash, support levels were like paper—little to no rebound opportunity, and prices headed straight for the freezing point. But now? Every sharp drop is met with rapid absorption by funds, which is a typical characteristic of a shakeout.

**Volume Reveals the Main Force’s Intentions**

Volume is always the most honest indicator. Shakeouts usually involve a three-step process: “increase volume—decrease volume—lock volume”:

On the day of the sharp decline, volume surges as the price drops, aiming to create panic and force retail investors to sell; then, the next day, trading volume rapidly contracts, indicating that the main force has quietly taken a large chunk of the chips; by the third day, the market enters a low-volume state, trading becomes dull, and retail investors have already exited.

The current market features match this pattern perfectly. Liquidation data spiked to around $200 million on the day of the plunge, but the following day, volume immediately shrank. This suggests that panic selling has been exhausted, and the main force is quietly locking in positions. If it were truly a crash, volume should continue to expand.

**Chip Distribution Offers Clues**

From on-chain data and exchange chip distribution, large addresses did not significantly reduce their holdings during this decline—in fact, they were accumulating at low levels. Is this correct? It aligns perfectly with shakeout logic—the main force wants to buy more chips at low prices and then push the price higher.

Conversely, if this were a systemic crash, large holders would have already sold heavily at high levels. The current situation is the exact opposite.

**Conclusion**

This decline is undoubtedly a shakeout. The main force is creating panic and suppressing prices to force retail investors to sell, while they are quietly accumulating at low levels. Technically, key support levels remain intact, rebounds are accompanied by volume, and chips are being accumulated—these are all signs of a shakeout. Instead of nervously watching the candles, it’s better to calmly analyze volume and chip flow; that’s the right way to judge the trend.