ETH has recently attracted a lot of attention. At the start of the new year, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting sent a strong signal — interest rates are firmly stuck in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Compared to last year's 25 basis point rate cut, the policy shift is obvious. The dot plot data is even more intuitive: there may be only one rate cut in 2026, with the terminal rate staying at 3.4%. Meanwhile, inflation data remains sticky at 2.4%, while GDP has surged to a growth rate of 2.3%. In the face of such an economy, the Federal Reserve seems to have little reason to ease.

Wall Street analysts are divided on this. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are relatively optimistic, expecting one rate cut in March and another in June; Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, is much more conservative, only betting on one. Extreme views are also fermenting in the market: some predict "zero rate cuts in 2026," while others dream of a 150 basis point cut. The real uncertainty lies in May — if Powell steps down and dovish Haskett takes over, the entire policy framework could be completely rewritten.

But the reality behind this is unsettling. Globally, the $38 trillion debt has become a ticking time bomb. Even more alarming is that global debt exceeds 235% of GDP, leaving almost no room for systemic tolerance. The crypto world is undergoing a paradigm shift: from the previous "liquidity-driven" logic to a new stage of "debt constraints + liquidity games."

Ironically, while the Fed adopts hawkish stances, it continues to inject liquidity into the banking system — a record $74.6 billion, the highest since the pandemic. This contradictory operation actually exposes a hidden concern: the financial system is beginning to show signs of "water shortage." As a result, markets are walking a tightrope — gold prices suddenly plummeted, silver dropped nearly 9%, and volatility tests the nerves of every participant.

For the crypto market, the "rate cut bull" narrative has already failed. Future battles will unfold in the intertwined dimensions of debt, liquidity, and power shifts. Short-term sharp declines may contain long-term opportunities, but patience and caution are required. When the January FOMC meeting concludes and market sentiment is fully released, the true value gaps will emerge from the divergence expectations. The most prudent choice right now is to stay put.