This time, the US government shutdown is truly different — it's not just a political drama, but a market risk that could directly impact your assets. As a trader who has been observing the crypto market long-term, combining current data and on-chain signals, I will analyze the financial chain reaction behind this.

The shutdown has lasted over 35 days, breaking records. The two parties are deadlocked over healthcare subsidies and budget issues, with temporary funding bills rejected 14 times in a row. This is not just a political problem — it directly affects people's livelihoods. About 13,000 air traffic controllers are working unpaid, with near 90% absenteeism at New York airports, making flight delays the norm. Meanwhile, food assistance for over 40 million low-income people has been interrupted, and some states are facing real living pressures.

The economic cost is tangible: each week of shutdown can slow US GDP growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points. If it continues into the Thanksgiving shopping season, economic growth could stall outright.

But the biggest impact on the market is actually the "liquidity black hole" in the fiscal system. During the shutdown, revenue and bond issuance funds are locked in the Treasury's TGA account, pulling nearly $700 billion in liquidity from the market in 20 days — equivalent to the impact of multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes. The overnight borrowing rate SOFR temporarily surged to 4.22%, with funding costs rising rapidly.

This is precisely a signal that the crypto market needs to be alert to.