What is the most heartbreaking thing about trading in the crypto world? When the market rises, you're afraid of chasing the high; when it falls, you're afraid of bottom fishing. The mind swings between extremes, and the account shrinks through repeated cycles.

I have been analyzing the crypto market for 8 years, experienced 3 complete bull and bear cycles, and seen too many investors go bankrupt due to this kind of indecision. Later, I stopped relying on intuition and instead quantified market signals into a systematic approach—using data to replace guesses and rules to replace emotions. The last three critical bull market judgments have all been accurate, and I want to share this approach with everyone.

The core logic is straightforward: Bull Market Probability = Institutional Capital Signals (30%) + Technical Signals (30%) + Sentiment Signals (20%) + Macro Economic Signals (20%). When the combined probability exceeds 70%, it’s a buy signal.

**How to interpret institutional capital signals**

Two key data points cannot be missed. One is the holdings trend of Grayscale Trust—continuous 2-week accumulation, with a weekly increase of over 1,000 coins, which scores 10 points. The other is the progress of ETF application submissions—mainstream institutions submitting applications + regulatory attitude being friendly = 10 points. If an institution launches related financial products, add another 10 points. This dimension has a total of 30 points, and a score above 20 is considered passing.

**Criteria for technical signals**

The indicator framework here needs to be combined with long-term K-line patterns, on-chain data, and trading volume data. How to break it down specifically will be analyzed one by one later.

The key is not to blindly bet when signals are unclear. Data speaks for itself; wait until it’s clear enough before acting. It’s much more cost-effective than suffering losses from impulsive decisions.