Recently, a certain analysis机构 released a prediction that Bitcoin will drop to $10,000 by 2026, which stands out among many bullish voices. The level of this prediction's aggressiveness is indeed worth pondering.

Looking back at historical records reveals the issues: in 2018, it was predicted that Bitcoin would fall from $10,000 to $1,500, but in reality, it stopped falling at around $3,200. In 2021, the forecast was for it to reach $400,000, but it only rose to about $69,000. It seems that inaccurate predictions are a routine operation for this机构.

This time, the logic for the decline is even more absurd—using a competitor model to frame Bitcoin. The competitors of gold are just a few (silver, platinum, palladium), but Bitcoin faces millions of encrypted assets. These two scales are simply not on the same level. Moreover, as the first and largest market cap crypto asset, Bitcoin's position is unlikely to be shaken in the short term.

If it were to truly fall to $10,000, the entire crypto ecosystem might need to be reshuffled. However, based on current market resilience and institutional布局, the probability of such an extreme scenario occurring is not high. Instead, a combination of gold continuing to rise, and a mild correction in US stocks and Bitcoin, seems more in line with next year's rhythm.