December 30 Market Outlook

Hello everyone, I am a trader who tends to get wiped out easily. Let's first look at the intraday trend. Bitcoin is fluctuating between 86,800 and 88,200. The rally during the night session on the 29th and the rebound at 2 a.m. were both suppressed. During midday, the price retreated to around 86,800 with buying support to stabilize. Starting from 1 p.m., the one-hour MACD has already formed a golden cross below the zero line. The price is moving around the one-hour EMA120 and EMA144, which are at about 87,800 and act as clear resistance levels. Currently, the four-hour chart shows four consecutive bullish candles, and the one-hour MACD fast line has been pushed above the zero line. The future trend depends on the price movement within the 87,800-88,500 range. The strong resistance zone remains at 89,500-90,500.

Ethereum's trend is relatively more aggressive than Bitcoin. The rally at 4 p.m. was driven by the crossing of the one-hour EMA7, 30, 120, and 144 at 2,950, igniting a surge past 3,000. Its upward momentum is much stronger than Bitcoin's. After the candle close, it has been consolidating within a narrow range of 2,972-2,988 over the past four hours. The energy of the one-hour MACD is slowing down, but the four-hour MACD has just started to turn. The future may revolve around the struggle around the 3,000 level.

Since we have been short for several days, the market's consolidation has not yielded good results. The four-hour chart is relatively neutral. Currently, we should adjust our mindset accordingly. For now, focus on sideways trading.

Key levels for Bitcoin:
Above: 88,500, 89,500, 90,500
Below: 87,200, 86,500

Key levels for Ethereum:
Above: 3,000, 3,050
Below: 2,930-2,950 zone

The current market is quite tangled. We prefer to stay cautious and observe. Previously, our bearish logic was based on expecting a downward decline or a deep dip, but after a week, the market remains in consolidation. We need to shift our mindset appropriately. Focus on sideways trading for now.

For Bitcoin:
Go long at 86,800, stop loss at 86,350
Or short at 88,500-88,800, add at 89,500, stop loss at 90,250

For Ethereum:
Short at 2,950, add at 3,000, stop loss at 3,030

Range-bound trading for Bitcoin is expected between 87,200 and 88,850.
Ethereum's first wave of volatility might be larger.

This approach, focusing on sideways trading, will not have a low risk-reward ratio or win rate regardless of profit or loss. Prefer to mainly short.