#战略性加仓BTC Silver has risen 153%. Is it overplaying its hand?

A major investment bank's risk model recently flashed a red light — "Bubble signal confirmed." But a group of analysts in the market simply don't buy it, still shouting "the de-dollarization trend is ongoing, continue to be bullish." Who is right?

The key issue actually lies here: traditional valuation models may have already become invalid. Why? Because physical shortages are driving prices higher.

What does the data say? Silver's performance over the past year has been quite crazy — from a compound growth perspective, the patterns of the past 25 years seem to confirm this. The investment bank's definition is clear: when prices accelerate toward a critical point at an ultra-exponential rate, and fluctuations become more frequent, it's called a bubble.

But there's a variable here — export controls for national security reasons. This is no small matter. Supply has really tightened, and no matter how the models are calculated, they don't seem to be accurate.

Regulatory actions on the U.S. side are also worth paying close attention to. The macro landscape has changed; relying solely on historical data could be a disadvantage.