2025-12-30 13:24:39

Tomorrow at 3 a.m., a key document will be released—the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes. On the surface, it's about a story of rate cuts, but in reality, officials have already been discussing whether to pause first behind the scenes. This document may seem routine, but it will directly influence how the market moves in early 2026.

The contradiction is quite striking: publicly saying they want to cut rates to stabilize confidence, while internally planning to "step on the brakes." It appears self-contradictory, but actually reveals their true concern—inflation hasn't truly been tamed, yet the economy shows signs of slowing down prematurely. From the minutes, we can see that these officials are walking a tightrope between "fighting inflation" and "preventing a recession," while also leaving room for a policy U-turn.

What does this mean for us traders? There are two scenarios:

One is if the minutes lean hawkish. That would be like a cold shot to the market—those hoping for a easing cycle should wake up. In the short term, risk assets will be suppressed, but in the long run, the Fed's firm stance against inflation might be the only way to achieve a true soft landing.

The other is if they leave room for a shift. That indicates the Fed is still observing, waiting for more data. In this case, the game in early 2026 will be more intense, and market volatility is sure to spike.

To be straightforward: the most valuable part of these minutes isn't what they say, but what they don't say. Any consensus about "pausing rate cuts" is essentially pouring cold water on the current optimistic sentiment. The Fed is quietly rebuilding its "policy buffer," which means it's not so easy to pursue a loosening stance in 2026.

A more transparent surface actually masks a more complex psychological game. Global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, and those so-called "more stable macro fundamentals," are fundamentally built on layers of guesses about the Fed's true intentions. Staying sober is colder but also safer than blind optimism.

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GateUser-e51e87c7

· 1h ago

Another trick, surface rate cut but pause behind the scenes, the Federal Reserve's latest move is unbeatable

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PositionPhobia

· 22h ago

At 3 a.m. again, insomnia strikes. Gambling notes are really exciting. Those guys say they will cut rates publicly, but secretly want to hit the brakes. Isn't that just诱多? I just want to know, whether it's a hawkish stance or a soft landing, whichever is chosen, we'll all get cut in a round. Wait, is this Bitcoin rally also betting on the Fed easing... Feeling a bit anxious. Honestly, "not saying much" is scarier than saying something, that’s just holding back. The volatility spike at the beginning of 2026, my position probably can't withstand it. Staying sober is safe, but I don't have much money, so I have no choice but to take a shot.

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GateUser-9ad11037

· 22h ago

Once the minutes are released, the bulls will soar to the rooftop Pausing interest rate cuts is not news; what matters is what can be acted upon The Federal Reserve is playing word games again, same old tricks Hawkish or dovish? Just look at the K-line to tell This wave of volatility is definitely soaring, reduce your positions by half first It's more deadly to talk about what hasn't been said than what has been said, understand? Data game begins, don't expect to win by lying down in 2026 In crypto? Build a macro buffer cushion, everything falls Being sober is one thing, but your account must stay sober too Policy buffer cushions are just digging a hole for us

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CoffeeNFTs

· 22h ago

Here we go again, the old American trick of "saying one thing and doing another" behind the scenes Waiting for the minutes, once again a prelude to a night of sharp decline Hawkish or dovish, they are all just cutting leeks on the road The real signals are in what’s not said, long been understood by Wall Street Want to buy the dip in crypto in 2026? First, survive the washout before 3 a.m. tomorrow Market volatility surges, this is the real opportunity that big players are waiting for The Fed bunch is just putting on a show, and we are just the leeks watching the show

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ETH_Maxi_Taxi

· 22h ago

Coming again with this set? The Federal Reserve is truly a master performer. The real show at 3 a.m., where's the promised rate cut, brothers? Just a pause in rate cuts can wake up the crypto dream, and by early 2026, there might be a bloodbath. It's better to look at the minutes than at what they didn't say; that's the real core. Loose monetary policy? Dream on, they've already changed their minds.

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AirdropHunterXiao

· 22h ago

The minutes at 3 a.m. are going to dump the market, I bet $5 that the hawkish signals will be off the charts. Wait, are these people putting on a show for us? Saying they're cutting rates while secretly stepping on the brakes—it's really a bit annoying. The market early 2026 is already starting to position itself... I need to get a good sleep so I can buy the dip tomorrow. What’s not said in the minutes is more valuable than what is said, I admit that. Crypto kids, don’t be too optimistic. The Federal Reserve’s show isn’t over yet.

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