The initial judgment at the beginning of the year seems to be correct: the possibility of Bitcoin breaking $80,000 is indeed increasing. Don't be fooled by the current price hovering around $87,000 and holding on stubbornly; there are landmines below. The market's weakness is beyond imagination, and even a slight disturbance could trigger a collapse.

**Liquidity Exhaustion is a Fatal Blow**

As the year-end approaches, all institutions are on holiday, and trading volume is plummeting. Currently, less than 18% of the total circulating Bitcoin can be traded quickly on exchanges, making the market extremely shallow. Recently, a lesser-known trading pair on a major exchange suddenly crashed 70% (though it quickly rebounded), mainly because of a scarcity of orders—one large order is enough to smash through the entire price. Don't even mention large institutional sell-offs; collective retail stop-loss orders are enough to trigger a liquidation wave. The wave of sharp decline in early December wiped out $1 billion in leveraged positions, but that's just the surface number.

**Institutional ETF Funds Are Continuing to Flee**

In November, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $3.5 billion, with a well-known asset management giant redeeming $2.2 billion in a single month. Even more painfully, data shows that every outflow of $1 billion could cause the price to drop by 3.4%. Currently, major US investors are cashing out by selling at a discount, which is a clear signal—institutions are not bottom-fishing; instead, they are fleeing during rebounds, and the downside potential has not been fully unleashed.

**Technical Analysis Shows a Perfect Bearish Arrangement**

Three failed attempts to break $90,000 have formed a solid top. Support levels in the $80,000–$84,000 range are being continuously eroded. Multiple factors are stacking up, and the risk of breaking down and falling further is accumulating.