What is the market waiting for? The logic behind Trump's announcement of a possible "significant rate cut" in 2026

The latest political developments send a core signal: if elected, a significant rate cut cycle will begin in 2026. Once this statement was made, global financial markets instantly became active—from Wall Street to the crypto world, everyone is recalculating future funding costs.

Why is this so critical? What is the essence of a rate cut—borrowing becomes cheaper. Corporate financing pressures sharply decrease, personal loan burdens decline, and from stocks to cryptocurrencies, the appeal of risk assets may surge. This is akin to saying: the current high-interest environment could reverse. Of course, this also directly challenges the Federal Reserve's existing policies.

Three dimensions that cannot be ignored:

· Clear time window—2026 has become the benchmark point for all market participants, and the countdown effect is fermenting
· Strong expectation of magnitude—The word "significant" reveals a determination to shift policy, with力度可能远超市场当前定价
· Global capital reallocation—Once the high-interest environment reverses, cross-border capital flows, the dollar's strong position, and the attractiveness of emerging market assets will be reshuffled

What does history remind us? Rate cut cycles are often accompanied by asset revaluation. Lower financing costs → rising corporate earnings expectations → expansion of risk asset valuations. Stocks may see a revival, but the dollar is also likely to face pressure. Will inflation make a comeback? That depends on how the policies are implemented.

The current situation is quite interesting: on one side are voices of early deployment, with preparations for bottom-fishing already gathering strength in the shadows; on the other side are concerns about a resurgence of inflation. Expectations of rate cuts, asset allocation, macro risks—these variables are intertwined, and opportunities and risks have never existed independently.

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