Today, ETH broke through $3000 straight up this morning, and the entire online community is buzzing—news of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire seems to be the perfect explanation for this rally.

But there's a question worth pondering: can a sudden news event truly support sustainable price increases?

While most people are chasing news and watching candlestick charts, a more critical aspect is being overlooked—the actual flow of on-chain funds. Is this surge a healthy bullish entry, or is it a trap for distribution under the guise of good news? It's hard to see the truth from price action alone.

**The Trap of News**

The ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is indeed a macro positive, but markets often overprice short-term news when sentiment is at its peak. If subsequent negotiations encounter surprises or the details fall short of expectations, the cost of chasing the rally can be very high. History is full of cases where "news hijacking" led to false signals.

**The Truth on the Chain**

A smarter approach than simply chasing the rally is to analyze on-chain data: Are whales truly following in? Or are a few wallets manipulating the price through wash trading? Is the ETH held on exchanges decreasing (funds leaving to cold wallets), or increasing (potential sell pressure)? How is the inflow of funds from other public chains or stablecoins?

These details are the real compass for judging whether the trend will continue. News is just noise; data reveals the truth.