#预测市场 The data in the prediction market is experiencing interesting changes. Wosh's probability on Polymarket has surged from 7% to 48%, Kalshi also jumped from 10% to 52%, while Hasset dropped from their respective highs (85% and 81%) to around 40%. This reversal is not noise; it is supported by specific signals behind it.

Key observation point: Trump has changed his tone in public statements. Going from "confirmed candidate" to "both Kevins are excellent," this softening wording indicates that decision-making power is fluctuating. Market also picked up on JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's attitude—although he acknowledged both, his comments are interpreted as leaning more towards Wosh.

From on-chain signals, such policy-level prediction market price movements usually lead official announcements by 2-4 weeks. Participant capital flows and probability adjustments reflect a re-prioritization of information—institutional investors are repositioning based on new intelligence. The suspicion that Hasset is "too close to the president" is also critical; such political risks tend to be quickly priced into prediction markets.

In the short term, this sector will continue to fluctuate, but based on the magnitude of probability reversal and the synchronized movement across multiple platforms, market consensus is leaning towards Wosh. It is worth continuing to monitor the progress of official statements.