#预测市场 Seeing this article about the manipulation risks faced by prediction markets, my first reaction is: this precisely illustrates why we must stay vigilant when it comes to asset allocation.

Prediction markets themselves are an interesting information tool—they aggregate dispersed information and come with real financial incentives. But as the article reveals, problems arise when these markets merge with social media and news outlets. Historically, from the betting markets of 1916 to the 2024 election forecasts, the shadow of manipulation has never disappeared. The key point is that even if the impact of manipulation itself is limited, the panic caused by "something going wrong" can spread rapidly, shaking the collective perception of market fairness.

What lessons can we draw from this? In an era of information explosion and AI proliferation, no single prediction tool should be the sole basis for decision-making. Prediction markets, polls, technical analysis—they each have their value but also their blind spots. A truly robust approach is to cross-verify multiple signals when formulating investment plans, while maintaining a moderate skepticism towards all information sources.

More importantly, position management and mindset building are crucial. Even if the market occasionally exhibits inexplicable volatility or signs of manipulation, as long as our positions are reasonably scaled and risks are controlled, we won't be harmed by short-term noise. In the long run, fundamentals and patience often triumph over those trying to create illusions.