Recent performance of ETH has been highly volatile. After breaking through $3800, it sharply retreated by over 10%, with intraday fluctuations far exceeding expectations. What exactly is driving this round of market movement?

The most direct catalyst comes from the rising expectations of spot ETFs. Several institutions have increased their probability estimates from 20% to 50%-60%, and the true reason behind this accelerated market trend lies here. But what’s more worth exploring is the subtle change in capital flows.

On-chain data reveals clues. The total locked value (TVL) in the ETH ecosystem has once again surpassed $80 billion, an increase of over 30%. Meanwhile, both spot and derivatives markets are expanding simultaneously. ETH spot daily trading volume has exceeded $15 billion, while perpetual contracts and futures open interest are rising rapidly. This indicates a significant influx of capital.

Looking at institutional strategies, they are adopting a phased deployment approach: accumulating heavily in the $3000-$3400 range, then significantly reducing positions near $3800, forming a typical swing trading pattern. This is not random trading but carefully designed capital allocation.

Further signals come from the options market. Implied volatility continues to rise, Gamma exposure is rapidly amplifying, and the previously moderate upward trend has evolved into short-term high-frequency oscillations. This suggests increasing market uncertainty and an expanded volatility space.

From the perspective of market makers, the current strategy is clear: accumulate in stages at lower levels and reduce positions in stages at higher levels. Essentially, it’s a game of information and capital. The upside offers profit-taking opportunities, while the downside provides accumulation scenarios. Before the market regains stability, the real opportunities are often brewed within these oscillations.