On-chain data has detected a sizable short operation — a whale account opened a $91 million short position, with BTC accounting for $47.8 million, ETH for $32.56 million, and SOL for $10.68 million, leveraging 18-20x. Such aggressive behavior is either based on a strong market outlook or purely gambling.

Currently, both BTC and ETH shorts are underwater, with only SOL barely in profit at $11,000. The problem lies in the deadly weakness of high leverage — extremely fragile stability. Taking 20x leverage as an example, just a 5% adverse move is enough to trigger liquidation. With BTC priced at $87,000, a rise to $91,350 (a 5% increase) would cause this short to face liquidation, losing all capital. For highly liquid assets like BTC, daily fluctuations of 5% are commonplace.

From a microstructure perspective, once this short is liquidated, a large number of buy orders will flood into the market. This will push prices higher, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations among other short accounts, forming a so-called short squeeze. If BTC breaks through the $90,000 level, it could serve as a trigger for this chain reaction. Conversely, if the market indeed drops sharply as this whale anticipates, it will profit handsomely but also release significant selling pressure, as more traders follow suit and short. This is a high-risk, high-reward scenario.