These days, my messages are flooding in intensely—"Is 82000 a solid bottom?" "Should I enter if it drops below 80000?" "Can the 7800 level hold?"... When I see these questions, I can't help but smile a little. Instead of obsessing over a specific number, it's better to understand a truth: the bottom of the crypto market is never a certain price point on the chart, but the moment when retail investor sentiment completely collapses and investors collectively "give up."

**Why can retail investor giving up become the market bottom?**

What is the hardest chip to handle in the market? It’s those repeatedly wavering orders held by retail investors. They want to run when prices go up a bit, panic when they dip, chasing gains and selling at losses, turning the entire market into chaos. This kind of disorderly trading acts like "internal friction" in the market; the main players need to shake out the weak hands, but they have to spend effort dealing with these chaotic chips.

Conversely, when are chips the cleanest? It’s when retail investors can no longer hold on, curse out loud, and cut their losses to leave. When these meaningless sell-offs disappear, the main players don’t need to bother with shaking out the weak hands, and the price naturally rebounds like a compressed spring. Simply put, when your opponent gives up first, do you still need to keep fighting?

**The three "cursed out" bottoms in history**

If you flip through the historical ledger with this theory, you’ll find this pattern quite accurate.

*2020 Pandemic Bottom (around $3,800)*

At that time, US stocks were circuit-breaking, oil prices plunged, and the entire crypto community was filled with laments of "Bitcoin is going to zero." Mining farms shut down became headlines, leverage liquidations flooded forums, some people sold their holdings and uninstalled trading apps, vowing never to touch this again. The comment sections were full of curses and despair. But looking back now, that $3,800 actually marked the start of a three-year bull market. Those mining rigs that shut down later restarted, and some who uninstalled the apps… didn’t come back, but those who held on made huge profits.

*2018 Mining Crisis Bottom (around $3,155)*

After dropping 85% from $20,000, mining equipment was sold by the pound, becoming an industry joke. Veteran traders in groups shouted, "This bear market will last at least five years," and nine out of ten comments on trading software were "trash market, full of scammers." The pessimism even exceeded that of 2020. Ironically, it was in this most hopeless atmosphere that the market bottom was quietly forming.

*2015 DAO Collapse Bottom*

In early 2016, the trust crisis caused by the Ethereum DAO incident plunged the crypto world into self-doubt. Many said it was the end of smart contracts, Ethereum’s future was doomed. But a turning point appeared at this moment. The investors who persevered eventually saw the birth and prosperity of the DeFi ecosystem.

**Why is this pattern so accurate?**

The answer is simple: sentiment is a leading indicator. Collective pessimism among retail investors often indicates that risk has been fully released. When most people have given up, the likelihood of extreme declines greatly diminishes—because no one wants to keep selling. At this point, as soon as a slight positive signal appears, capital is easily willing to re-enter.

Looking back at those who didn’t capitulate completely, their mistake was not in misjudging the number but in having a mental defense stronger than retail investors, thus missing the opportunity when everyone else has surrendered.

**So, where is the bottom?**

Instead of asking "Is it 82000 or 80000," ask "How many people still want to cut losses now?" When the forums are full of posts like "I will never touch crypto again in this life," and communities are discussing job hunting instead of mining, that’s when the price is worth paying close attention to. Because history has already shown us that the most genuine market bottoms often emerge from the most desperate emotions.