Ethereum Evening Market Observation Notes:

From the hourly chart, Ethereum has successfully broken through the bearish flag pattern, but is currently stuck at the key resistance level of 2993. According to technical rules, it takes about 3 candlesticks to respond—if after 3 candlesticks it still can't break through, a pullback to test the upper boundary of the flag is highly probable. Everyone can watch and see.

Whether it can hold above the flag's upper boundary determines the subsequent trend: if it holds, there’s a chance to push further towards 2993; breaking through and stabilizing could see it reach around 3044. If it can't hold, it will fall back inside the flag, greatly increasing the probability of the flag being broken downward. There's a saying that’s quite accurate— as long as a bearish flag pattern isn’t broken, it will eventually be broken downward.

The trading approach is very clear: Bitcoin spot price (二饼) breaks through with volume at 2985, so you can chase long on the right side; if it drops below 2956 with volume, then chase short on the right side. The key is to closely monitor volume changes, and stop-losses must be in place.

On the hourly level, holding above 2985 targets the 3012 to 3043 range. If the 2945 level is broken on the 4-hour chart, the next support levels are 2909 to 2865.

By the way, here’s an interesting phenomenon: range-bound oscillation is a common market pattern. Look at the yellow arrows on the chart—several times they attempted to break out of the range but failed. Only the one circled by the yellow box truly broke out—but when it retested the upper boundary of the range, it couldn’t hold and pulled back again. Ethereum is now approaching the upper boundary of the range. If it still can’t break through this time, or if it breaks out but then retests and can’t hold, it will re-enter the range. Only a confirmed breakout that holds after retesting can suggest further upside potential. Otherwise, the chances of a false breakout or a genuine breakdown are both high—based on experience, about 80% of such cases are fake-outs.

The most important thing in trading is to have evidence, logic, and tools. When others are rising, you look for bullish signals; when they are falling, you look for bearish signals. Relying solely on herd mentality will eventually cost you. Use your own analysis framework and technical indicators to speak, so you can find certainty amid volatility.