2025-12-30 12:21:05

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[The Global Chessboard of the US Debt Dilemma: What Choices Are Central Banks Making]

The story of US debt has become increasingly interesting these days.

On the Chinese side, they have quietly been reducing holdings for 13 consecutive months. The US debt held has plummeted from its peak, now returning to 2008 levels—$688.7 billion. Meanwhile, gold in the vaults continues to increase, now totaling 74.12 million ounces. The message is clear: eggs shouldn't all be put in the US debt basket.

Japan's situation is a bit different. Domestic interest rates have been pushed to the floor, and cash holdings must find a place to go. Overseas allocations, frankly, are limited to US debt as the only viable option. As a result, Japan's US debt holdings have surpassed $1.2 trillion, entirely driven by the need to catch the relay baton thrown by other countries. The mindset is probably: hold steady and see if we can still make some profit?

The seasoned players in London's Financial District are even more straightforward. Recently, they increased their holdings of US debt by $155.1 billion without batting an eye. Trading, arbitrage, market making—within the dollar system, there is still liquidity to profit from. While others study trends, they are eating the spread.

But the risks behind this are already significant. The total US national debt has exploded to $38 trillion, with annual interest payments reaching $1.2 trillion. Rating agencies keep sounding alarms, and the label of "risk-free" is beginning to be questioned.

There are only two paths ahead: one is gradual diversification into gold and other assets, gradually stepping out of the dollar forest; the other is to continue shuttling within the dollar system, earning the visible liquidity in front of us.

How will this play out in the future? Perhaps the opinions in the comment section are more valuable than predictions.

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SatoshiChallenger

· 2025-12-30 12:51

Data shows that China's recent actions were actually foreshadowed long ago. The 13-month consecutive reduction is no coincidence; those in the know understand. Interestingly, Japan was forced to take over the position, which is what you call systemic risk transfer—nothing new. Those old foxes in London cracked me up. They're really just profiting from the spread, while you guys are still tangled up in macro narratives. Ironically, the $38 trillion in US debt has long been a ticking time bomb. Only now are people starting to get nervous.

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Blockwatcher9000

· 2025-12-30 12:42

China has been reducing its holdings of US debt and accumulating gold, while Japan is forced to take over, and the UK is engaging in arbitrage... This game is indeed becoming more and more interesting. But to be honest, the debt scale of 38 trillion should have collapsed long ago, and it's already remarkable that it's still holding on.

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CryptoNomics

· 2025-12-30 12:22

honestly the correlation matrix between UST yield dynamics and central bank reserve rebalancing is far more complex than this surface-level analysis suggests. if you run a basic regression on the 13-month withdrawl pattern against gold accumulation rates, the r-squared value tells a completely different story than "eggs in one basket"

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