Today's market rhythm is quite interesting. The tug-of-war around the $3000 level for Ethereum has evolved into a real battle between bulls and bears. It approached nearly $2950 this morning, looking quite fierce. But if you look closely at on-chain data, whales are placing large buy orders around $2882, which is a detail worth pondering.

This is the third large-scale sell-off this month. An early Lido-related address sold off 15,000 ETH last night, equivalent to over $42 million, yet the market didn't drop much. This has happened three times, indicating that the support below is quite solid. Retail panic selling is happening, while smart money is accumulating, and this contrast really tells the story.

**From a technical perspective, what is the current situation**

On the daily chart, it seems the bears have the upper hand. ETH is trading below all key moving averages, with the 20-day moving average pressing at $2999, and the 50-day moving average slightly higher around $3157. At first glance, the pressure looks significant.

But on the 1-hour chart, there's a detail: the MACD histogram has reached a depth of -13.81, which should be the most bearish point. The problem is that the slope of the DIF line's decline has started to flatten. This is a classic exhaustion signal, usually indicating a trend reversal is imminent.

The Bollinger Bands are now contracting near the middle band at $3008, beginning to open up, with the lower band at $2943. This $2943 is the real "life or death" line—if the price breaks below it, it could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders, rapidly dropping to the $2915 or even $2880 zone.

**The secrets behind on-chain data**

Why didn't the sale of 15,000 ETH trigger panic? The core reason is that it was an orderly absorption process. Whales are choosing specific price levels to buy, indicating confidence in the market’s future. If they were truly bearish, they wouldn't be placing orders at this level.

Data on stablecoin inflows into exchanges is also warming up. While not extremely aggressive, the trend shows buy orders are accumulating. Retail traders are taking losses, while large players are positioning themselves. This time difference often signals an impending market reversal.

What’s the outlook? If the $2943 support can hold, the rebound could reach $3050–$3080. But if it breaks, then the support around $2880 must be taken seriously.