Recently, I came across on-chain data again, and this "storyline" made me a bit annoyed.

My friend in Macau was supposedly scammed out of 1.18 million through a "financial management channel." It sounds like a clever scam, but in reality—I've seen hundreds of such schemes on the chain every year. It's not about something new, but the market psychology behind it can be understood immediately through data.

**On-chain data always outpaces news**

The kind of "high returns, margin trading, quick withdrawals" schemes tend to appear most during market euphoria—specifically during FOMO phases. Looking at recent conditions, the on-chain issuance of USDT has indeed slowed down, but the balances on exchanges are piling up. What does this indicate? Retail investors are attracted by various "stories" and are entering the market, while savvy traders might be waiting for a better bottoming opportunity.

**Three signals indicating something's off**

Bitcoin has had three consecutive days of net outflows from exchanges, and large whale addresses haven't shown much activity—traditionally a bullish sign. But what’s the result? Ethereum's Gas fees suddenly surged; checking the cause reveals it's mainly some low-tier projects desperately pumping their prices. This is a classic "leek collection point" signal.

Furthermore, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is now very low, indicating that market funds are actually hesitating, which is completely opposite to the characteristics of a genuine bull market.

**Short-term surge = existing funds "creating liquidity"**

Any sudden price jump is essentially existing money passing around—very straightforward: fishing. It attracts those who are dazzled by "book profits of 7.9 million." Honestly, I repeatedly emphasized in the second half of the year: avoid any "internal channels" promising capital preservation or excess returns. On-chain data now fully confirms this— the higher retail enthusiasm, the greater the risk of a pullback.

**What needs to be done is actually very simple**

Instead of listening to gossip, look at the data yourself. Check the Bitcoin MVRV ratio, then look at the exchange withdrawal data—these are more honest than any analysis. Historically, veterans get caught chasing highs, newcomers get caught bottom-fishing. My advice at this point is: better to earn a little less than to become the "bagholder" in others' words.