The profit distribution in the lithium industry chain has indeed been uneven over the past two years. While downstream battery manufacturers continue to be profitable, their gross profit margins of a few percentage points are not considered exorbitant—they need to benchmark the overall industry’s return on investment. Midstream processing plants are in a tough spot, lacking technological barriers and being squeezed from both upstream and downstream, essentially doing free labor.

The most heartbreaking part is that many retail investors fail to see through this利益结构, simply blaming all problems on "black-hearted price suppression." While venting this frustration feels satisfying, it doesn't change the reality.

The current landscape is: upstream lithium mining companies are enjoying real profits, downstream battery factories maintain acceptable reasonable returns, and midstream processors are caught in the middle, often operating at a loss. From an industry balance perspective, lithium carbonate prices in the 80,000 to 100,000 yuan range are barely acceptable to all parties—at least everyone still has the motivation to continue.

But whether this price ceiling can be broken depends on whether price signals can be smoothly transmitted from upstream to downstream—battery factories, energy storage systems, new energy vehicle manufacturers, and other end-users—whether they can absorb higher costs. If all links in the industry chain are willing to share profits, lithium carbonate prices might have room to rise further.

However, for us investors, the long-term topic of industry coordination is often less attractive. Frankly, what we care about more is whether lithium carbonate will hit another limit-down tomorrow—that’s the real trading opportunity.