#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Wash trading in the prediction market surge from 7% to 48%, my first reaction isn't to follow the trend and bet, but to recall the pitfalls I once encountered in prediction markets.

These markets are most likely to impair judgment. Data fluctuations seem objective, but in reality, they are driven by capital betting on political expectations. Retail investors often just jump in at the last moment. I've seen too many people get excited by headlines like "Probability rises to first," only to be caught off guard when the trend reverses.

Carefully examining the logic this time—Wash trading probability surpassing others—the surface reason is "Trump shows favor." But don't forget, Hasset once skyrocketed from 7% to 85%, and now has fallen back to 42%. The truth about prediction markets is: whoever's story is more compelling, capital piles into that. The final candidate for Federal Reserve Chair involves complex political games; prediction markets can only reflect current market sentiment, not true probabilities.

Over the years on the blockchain, I've learned the most important lesson—when everyone is excited about the same data, it's often time to stay calm. Prediction markets do have reference value, but treating them as certainty for trading is gambling.

True value investors should ask: does this information change my actual strategy? If the answer is "follow the trend and chase probabilities," then be cautious about falling into the FOMO trap again.